We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
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Ep. 319: Phil Suttle on Slowing US, Delayed Tariff Impacts and China Investment
43:19
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43:19Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we discuss US labour supply problem, state of the US consu…
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Ep. 318: Brad Setser on Trump Tariffs, China’s Surging Surplus and Dollar Policy
51:56
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51:56Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Brad served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where…
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Ep. 317: George Selgin on Trump Tariffs, Fed Independence and Dollar Vulnerability
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45:19George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books. His latest is ‘False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery, 1933–1947’. In this podcast we discuss re-interp…
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Ep. 316: Kyle Keane on AI, Forecasting and Turning Blind
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1:04:10Dr. Kyle Keane is a Senior Lecturer in Assistive Technologies at the University of Bristol, where he leads research at the intersection of artificial intelligence, human cognition and assistive technology design. With a background in quantum computing and computational physics, he applies the scientific rigor of a physicist to studying human percep…
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Ep. 315: Keyu Jin on What Everyone Gets Wrong on China
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46:30Keyu Jin is a global economist and author. She is an academic member of the China Finance 40 Group and has worked with the World Bank, the IMF, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and is a non-executive board member of the luxury conglomerate Richemont and Jardine Matheson. Born and raised in Beijing, she attended high school and college i…
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Ep. 314: Marvin Barth on Trump’s US Resurgence, No Fed Cuts and Dire Europe
1:04:13
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1:04:13Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and ‘Seriously, Marvin?!’ Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin does not have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely br…
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Ep. 313: Tom Montag on the Undiscovered Potential of Carbon Markets
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37:56Tom Montag is the founding Chief Executive Officer of Rubicon Carbon. Tom has over 20 years of experience in financial markets. Previously, he was the Chief Operating Officer and President of global banking and markets at Bank of America. Tom was also a member of the company’s executive management team, overseeing all businesses serving corporation…
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Ep. 312: Deepak Gurnani on Five Steps for Using AI in Investing
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41:15Deepak Gurnani is the Founder and Managing Partner of Versor Investments. He is the former CIO of Investcorp’s Hedge Fund Group and was one of its founding members in 1996. Deepak was also a member of its Management Committee. He retired from Investcorp in March 2013. Prior to Investcorp, Deepak spent six years with Citicorp. In this podcast we dis…
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Ep. 311: Ralph Sueppel on Quant Trading Macro the Right Way
48:11
48:11
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48:11Ralph Sueppel is Managing Director for Research and Trading Strategies at Macrosynergy. Previously, he was an Executive Member and Portfolio Manager at Graham Capital. During his tenure there, he created the Systemic Risk and Systematic Value Project (now Macrosynergy Research), a non-profit project dedicated to educating the broader financial comm…
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Ep. 310: Helen Thomas on Trump’s Controlled Demolition Strategy
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49:35Helen Thomas is the CEO of Blonde Money, an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the US, UK and the EU. Helen has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. She was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. Previously, Helen has been a partner …
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Ep. 309: Adam Frank on Aliens, AI and Climate Collapse
1:03:53
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1:03:53Adam Frank is a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester. A self-described ‘evangelist of science,’ Adam regularly writes and speaks about subjects like intelligent life forms in the universe, high-energy-density physics, space exploration and missions, climate change and more. In this podcast we discuss public science communication…
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Ep. 308: Tobias Harris on Why Japan Matters
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52:42
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52:42Tobias Harris is the Founder and Principal of Japan Foresight LLC. He has observed Japan as a political risk analyst at Teneo Intelligence and as a researcher at universities and think tanks. He is also Senior Advisor for Japan at Aurora Macro Strategies. Tobias is the author of ‘The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan’. In this podcast we dis…
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Ep. 307: Michael Sandel on Populism, Saving Democracy, and Tyranny of Merit
1:11:31
1:11:31
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1:11:31Michael Sandel teaches political philosophy at Harvard University. His writings – on justice, ethics, democracy, and markets – have been translated into more than 30 languages. His course ‘Justice’ is the first Harvard course to be made freely available online and on television, being viewed by tens of millions worldwide. Michael has served on the …
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Ep. 306: Ken Rogoff on Dollar Decline, Debt Worries and Fed Independence
1:52:36
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1:52:36Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University, and former chief economist at the IMF. He has long ranked among the top dozen most cited economists and is an international grandmaster of chess. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantita…
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Ep. 305: James van Geelen on ‘Haves vs Have Nots’ Theme, AI and Tariffs
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49:05
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49:05James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative 'megatrends' poised to shape societies, economies, and the market’s distribution of returns for years to come. In this podcast we discuss crossovers between emergency medicine and trading, importance of a beginner’s mindset, humility…
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Ep. 304: Zongyuan Zoe Liu on Calculated China vs Unpredictable US
1:01:39
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1:01:39Zongyuan Zoe Liu is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. …
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Ep. 303: Mirza Baig on Trump’s Trade Strategy, China Risks and Canada’s Dilemma
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46:32Mirza has a track record of 20 years in the field of researching and trading global foreign exchange. His methodology is built on comprehensive research on underlying fundamentals, rigorous scenario analysis, and a low-frequency, high-conviction approach for idea generation. Mirza has worked at top-tier sell-side firms, including Morgan Stanley, BN…
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Ep. 302: Vania Stavrakeva on Macro News, Investor Flows and Trading Markets
49:54
49:54
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49:54Vania Stavrakeva is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and has a PhD from Harvard. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements. She has also produced innovative research on the global network of equity holdings and thei…
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Ep. 301: Andrew Polk on China’s Bet on Tech Supremacy
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49:26
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49:26Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors. Previously, he was the resident China economist at The Conference Board’s China Center for Economics and Business. Andrew is the co-author of The Long, Soft …
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Ep. 300: Gary Gerstle on Decoding Trump: Power & Chaos (Live at Cambridge University)
53:04
53:04
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53:04Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government f…
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Ep. 259: Thanos Papasavvas on Trump’s (Unsurprising) Geopolitical Shock
51:05
51:05
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51:05Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992. Thanos then embarked on a 20-year asset management career with CSFB Investment Management (Credit Suisse) and Investec Asset Management…
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Ep. 258: Randy Schwimmer on Why Private Credit Is Performing
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50:49Randy Schwimmer is Vice Chairman of Churchill, where he oversees the Investor Solutions Group. Previously, he served as Co-Head of Senior Lending, responsible for senior lending origination and capital markets. Randy also serves on the firm’s Executive Committee and Senior Lending Investment Committee. Randy is also the Founder and Publisher of The…
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Ep. 257: Joe Lavorgna on Trump Supercharging US Growth
37:53
37:53
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37:53Joe Lavorgna is a Managing Director and Chief Economist for SMBC Nikko Securities. He was previously the Chief Economist for the Americas at Natixis. While there, Joe took a one-year leave of absence to serve in the Trump administration, where he was Special Assistant to the President, and Chief Economist of the National Economic Council. Prior to …
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Ep. 256: Max Stier on Trump Ripping Up Government
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45:42Max Stier is President and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service. The Partnership has been widely praised as a thought leader on federal government management issues. Max has worked previously in all three branches of the federal government. Most recently, Max worked at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, having served as the Deput…
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Chris Johnson spent nearly two decades at the CIA focusing on China and Asia. Today, Chris is the President and CEO of China Strategies Group. He also serves as a Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis and is a senior fellow in the office of the president at the Center for Strategic and In…
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Ep. 254: Jonny Matthews on US Economy and Why the Fed Will Not Cut in 2025
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1:00:07Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio. Earlier in his career, Johny spent 11 years at Citigroup, leading a team in equity deriv…
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Ep. 253: Barry Eichengreen on Trump Trade Policy, Dollar Status and Debt Crises
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43:38Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including ‘In Defense of Public Debt’ (Oxford University Press, 2021). In this podcast, we discuss the inflation regime, which central banks …
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Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World
46:16
46:16
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46:16Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss how US, Europe and Asia are fighting…
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Ep. 251: Phil Suttle on Fed Hiking in 2025
47:04
47:04
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47:04Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about how Trump 2.0 will impact macro, why tariffs…
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Ep. 250: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Non-Consensus View on Fed and Trump 2.0
28:46
28:46
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28:46Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode cov…
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Ep. 249: Mark Rzepczynski on Wicked Markets and Understanding Risk
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43:15
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43:15Mark Rzepczynski is the managing member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, a consulting firm to institutional investors and hedge funds on derivatives markets across all asset classes. His 40 years of experience includes CEO Funds Group of FourWinds Capital Management, president, CIO of John W. Henry Inc, and head of taxable fixed income resear…
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Ep. 248: Shawn Edwards on How Bloomberg Is Using AI (Replay)
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43:47Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns…
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Ep. 247: Julia Azari on Trump’s Second Term, Constraints and Priorities
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42:44Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Chan…
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Ep. 246: Tomasz Nadrowski on Navigating Global Chaos
1:00:48
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1:00:48Tomasz is a portfolio manager at Amvest Capital – a natural resources-focused investment management firm. He has over 25 years of expertise in mining investments, including as a portfolio manager for Anholt, commodity strategist at Doyen Capital, portfolio manager at De Gouden Eeuw, and as a commodity analyst at Round Table Investment Management. H…
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Ep. 245: Frank Kelly on Why Everyone Underestimates Trump
54:21
54:21
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54:21Frank Kelly, Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, an independent strategic advisory firm. Frank began his career as a writer for President Ronald Reagan and went on to serve in the White House Office of Political Affairs. He served as a writer for President George H.W. Bush and then served at the Justice Department. From there, F…
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Ep. 244: In Memoriam - Professor Ian Shipsey on How Physics Can Change the World
1:06:13
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1:06:13In late September, I had the honour of recording a conversation with the late Professor Ian Shipsey, Head of Physics at Oxford University. Tragically, Professor Shipsey passed away shortly after our discussion. We are releasing this episode as a tribute to his remarkable contributions. Professor Shipsey was one of the leading particle physicists of…
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Ep. 243: Charles Engel on Currency Models, Carry Trades and Capital Flows
39:12
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39:12Charles Engel is Donald Hester Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He has been a consultant to the Dallas and Chicago branches of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and th…
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Ep. 242: Alberto Gallo on Trump Impact, Geopolitics and Favourite Markets
30:50
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30:50Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and Lon…
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Ep. 241: Gary Gerstle on Trump’s Big Win and the Future of American Politics
53:39
53:39
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53:39Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government f…
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Ep. 240: Ebrahim Rahbari on US Election Trades, Fed Cycle and German Challenges
43:07
43:07
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43:07Ebrahim Rahbari is an independent strategist and economist. Previously, he was Chief Currency Strategist and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Analysis at Citi. The team was top ranked in the Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Survey. Prior to that, Ebrahim was Head of Global Macroeconomics at Citi. Ebrahim studied at Oxford and holds a PhD i…
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Ep. 239: Thomas Drechsel on Measuring Political Pressure on Fed, Predicting Fed, and Better Nowcasts
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49:49Thomas Drechsel is Assistant Professor at the Economics Department of the University of Maryland. His research focuses on monetary policy, the role of commodities for emerging market economies, as well as real-time monitoring of economic activity. His work has been published in the Review of Economic Studies, the American Economic Journal and the J…
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Ep. 238: Rory Johnston on Oil to $65, Middle East Risks and Trump Agenda
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55:45Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodit…
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Ep. 237: Antonio Del Favero on the Fed’s Mistake, Inflation Risks and Financial Conditions
48:58
48:58
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48:58Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a master’s in finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a master’s in economics from Bocconi University. In this podcast…
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Ep. 236: Sean McMeekin on the Return of Communism
1:17:36
1:17:36
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1:17:36Sean McMeekin PhD was educated at Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley. Having visited American and European battlefields, libraries and archives, venturing as far east as Russia and Turkey, he now teaches at Bard College. His eight award-winning books include ‘Stalin's War: A New History of World War’. His latest book is …
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Ep. 235: Christian Schwarz on AI Bubbles, Using AI in Trading and Synthetic Data
42:12
42:12
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42:12Christian is Managing Director and Head of Data Science in the financial markets division at Standard Chartered. He focuses on credit and previously worked at Mizuho and Credit Suisse. His postgraduate studies were in financial mathematics. In this podcast we discuss whether we are in an AI bubble, why credit markets have lagged other markets in ad…
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Ep. 234: Jay Pelosky on Bullish Equities, Early Cycle US and Trump Losing
1:00:18
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1:00:18Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss what the chances of recession are, U…
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Ep. 233: Mirza Baig on Best EM Trades, Fed Easing and China Carry Trade
30:23
30:23
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30:23Mirza Baig is a senior EM strategist at Macro Hive. He has been researching and trading global FX and rates products for 20 years. His career boasts affiliations with premier sell-side entities such as Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank. Moreover, his invaluable expertise from the buy-side perspective at Point 72 positions him uniquely …
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Ep. 232: Bob Elliott on US Recession Odds, Fed Policy and Equity Risks
36:33
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36:33Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team fo…
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Ep. 231: J. Doyne Farmer on Making Sense of Chaos
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46:12J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics Programme and Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His book, Making…
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Ep. 230: Shawn Edwards on How Bloomberg Is Using AI
43:47
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43:47Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns…
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