Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Weekend Edition: The Dollar Will Continue to Slide, Come What May
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33:08Thursday 24th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar will continue to slide, come what May. And probably come what June and July. Whilst he’s reluctant to be drawn too closely on timing, NAB’s Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy, says we can expect to see the US dollar fall…
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China’s tariff hopes. A less worse scenario.
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15:07Thursday 24th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities rose again this session, and te US dollar strengthened for the second session, as the Trump administration talked up the possibility of cuts to China’s tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reports the levies could be cut by …
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Peak Trump? Bouncing back on hope of deals
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17:17Wednesday 23rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are behaving very differently today. US equities are rising, bond movement is subdued, and oil prices are back on the rise. NAB’s Sally Auld says sentiment is being driven by talk from the US administration about trade deal…
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Tuesday 22nd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The 'sell America' trade continued on Monday, with equities and bond prices both falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s uncertainty over the independence of the Fed that is playing on market concerns this time. The US President ha…
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Thursday 17th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. IATA is predicting the airline industry will break through the $1 trillion revenue mark, but with margins averaging up 3.6 percent. Phil suggests to airline industry analyst John Strickl…
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NVIDIA AI chip ban as trade war with China escalates
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14:32Thursday 17th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Things are getting uglier in the trade war between the US and China. Equity markets have been hit by new limits on the export of NVIDIA’s critical AI chip to China, and threats of secondary tariffs on US trade partners who trade sig…
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Boeing banned, bearish bank survey, royal win for Britain?
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19:23Wednesday 16th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Tariff and trade news continues to dominate and drive markets in all directions. Sentiment surveys are now showing a serious downturn, with the Bank of America claiming investors are ayt their most bearish in 30 years. NAB’s Rodrig…
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More tariff exemptions, but equities lose their early gains
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16:59Tuesday 15th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities kicked off Monday’s session sharply higher on Friday's news of tariff exemptions for certain electronics items. Apple was one of the big beneficiaries. But as the session progressed most of those gains diminished, perhaps…
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CEOs force exemptions. Is Trump ready to deal?
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18:02Monday 14th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was very little market reaction to the increase in tariffs from China on Friday. Could equities respond, though, to the news of exemptions announced by President Trump for certain electronics goods. Could this mean, as CEOs queu…
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Weekend Edition: Does money supply determine economic health?
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31:34Friday 11th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Economists these days tend not to treat the supply of money as a major determinant of economic growth. That’s because a downturn in the supply of money can be counteracted by the speed at …
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Friday 11th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s rebound in US equities has proven to be very short-lived, with equities well down at the close in New York. NAB’s Gavin Friend says it’s a reality check, with the tariff war continuing between the US and China, and the que…
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Thursday 10th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A roller coaster session on the markets. It started yesterday during the day in Australia with massive selloffs in US bonds on the news of rising tariffs from China and the US. The US is now up to 125%, with China imposing 84% from …
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Wednesday 9th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The full set of US tariffs applies from midnight tonight in the US (2pm Sydney and Melbourne). Including the hefty ones with China. As NAB’s Sally Auld says, the China tariff is so high its basically an acknowledgement that they don…
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Tuesday 8th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were momentarily excited earlier when it seemed that the President might be delaying tariffs for 90 days. Up to that point US equities were continuing to spiral lower, but newfound optimism that Trump might moderate his approa…
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Monday 7th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In a world gone a little bit crazy, the only question is, how much crazier can it get? China has been the first to hit back at the US with retaliatory tariffs applied from April 10th. EU trade ministers are meeting today to discuss the…
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Weekend Edition: Australia’s happy place in the geopolitical landscape
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23:51Friday 4th April 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. This week TCorp, the NSW Treasury Corporation, put out a report on the evolving financial landscape. They certainly picked an interesting week to launch it. Phil talks to TCorp’s chief econ…
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Friday 4th April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB You’ll know by now that President Trump’s tariff regime was worse than many had expected, even though Australia got off relatively lightly. You might also be aware that, despite the Presidential claims, the numbers were not based on th…
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Thursday 3rd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump’s announcement in the Rose Garden is bad news for us. For the podcast, that is. It’s just after we publish the final edition at the US market close. So, there’s every chance you’ll know what’s happened before you list…
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Wednesday 2nd April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets continue to dance around the uncertainty of Donld Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. There was a suggestion in the Wall Street Journal that the President might impose a 20%traiff on all imports, from everywhere, with t…
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Tuesday 1st April 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Gold hit another new high overnight on the back of the continued uncertainty about the shape and extent of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs tomorrow. He has suggested that it will include all countries, in some form or other. …
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Monday 31st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has …
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Weekend Edition: Age Care Crisis Only Partially Fixed
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21:28Friday 28th March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. New aged care legislation, which becomes law on July 1st, goes somewhere to fixing the funding crisis that has plagued the aged care industry over recent decades. Residents will need to pa…
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Friday 28th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market fell only slight today after yesterday’s announcement that cars and car parts will have a 25% import tariff imposed on them, irrespective of where they come from. Interestingly, US manufacturers seem to have been h…
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Cars and Copper – next for the Trump Treatment
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13:36Thursday 27th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly not excited about President Trump’s trade agenda. Equities took a hit in this session on news that an announcement on auto tariffs could happen within hours. There have also been rumours about copper could also b…
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Wednesday 26th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets lost their mojo a little in this session. NAB’s Gavin friend says this was in part due to a weaker than expected consumer confidence report from the Conference Board. It showed the lowest number for forward expectations …
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Tuesday 25th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar climbed a little today as US equities rallied, led by the Magnificent Seven. It’s like the good old days of American exceptionalism, but will it last or is it a brief stint of buying the dip? That’s a question Phil puts…
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Monday 24th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The clock is ticking close to April 2nd when the Trump administration unleashes its comprehensive tariff program. As Liberation Day nears, NAB’s Rodrigo Catril wonders whether claims of the end to American exceptionalism were prematur…
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Weekend Edition: Bank Hybrids. Just too complex?
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26:31Friday 21st March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. APRA plans to phase out bank hybrids (AT1s) by January 2027. So, what exactly are AT1s and why is the regulator so concerned? In short, they are CoCos, contingent convertibles that transfe…
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Digesting the Fed’s Transitory Inflation Assumption
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17:29Friday 21st March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB One of the takeouts from yesterday's FOMC meeting was Jerome Powell's view that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be transitory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets are still expecting two or more cuts this year as a resul…
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Thursday 20th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold as expected and, unsurprisingly, cut their growth projections, increased inflation and increased the unemployment forecast for this year. But the dot plot has changed very little. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins …
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Ceasefires – one ends as another opens up, perhaps
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17:22Wednesday 19th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was more market uncertainty today driven largely by geopolitics. Trump and Putin have reached an outline agreement for a 30day ceasefire, but it really hasn’t moved markets. There was more of a concern over the end to the Isr…
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Tuesday 18th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equities had a good session overnight on both sides of the Atlantic, perhaps because there wasn’t much in the way of bad news. The headline number of US retails sales was weaker than anticipated, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it wasn’…
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Monday 17th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We know a lot about President Trump’s plan for America First. Today we get to hear China’s plans for growth. NAB’s tapas Strickland says the PBoC and the finance ministry will hold a press conference today about measures being introdu…
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Weekend Edition: Does Australia need to spend big on defence?
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31:20Friday 14th March 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. This week we discovered the extent of Australia’s close relationship with the US. Not that close, it seems with the Trump administration happy to apply a 25 percent tariff on our steel and…
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Friday 14th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets behaved in a classic risk-off fashion this session, with equities falling and safe-haven currencies rising. Even the US dollar came to the party. Why? A day of bad news basically. Phil talks through it with NAB’s Rodrigo Catri…
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Aluminium and steel tariffs, no exceptions. So far.
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17:30Thursday 13th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Trump administration applied a worldwide tariff on exports of aluminium and steel to the US effective today. The knee jerk response has varied from country to country. Europe is enacting retaliatory measures, whereas the UK is k…
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Wednesday 12th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Two bits of late breaking news swung markets around towards the Tuesday close in the US. First, a cease fire agreement has been reached with Ukraine in Jeddah, with the US resuming intelligence sharing in the interim. It’s got ot b…
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Tuesday 11th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly concerned about the direction of the US economy, as bond yields rise and equities fall sharply again. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether there’s an overreaction happening. Surely, if the economy is seen to b…
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Monday 10th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The downturn in shares, the weaker dollar and rising bond yields are all part of the detox, according to Scott Bessant, as money shifts from government spending to the private sector. So, it’s a temporary setback, he believes. But the…
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Weekend Edition: How can women move faster up the corporate ladder?
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27:57Friday 28th February 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The theme for International Women’s Day this year is Accelerate Action - to move faster towards gender equality. It seems progress has slowed lately in Australia. Last year 37 percent o…
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Friday 7th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a difficult high wire act for the ECB right now. They have cut rates as inflation comes down, but they have also forecast less growth. But, Phil suggests, it’s a strange scenario to be cutting rates whilst yields are pushing marke…
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Thursday 6th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German bund prices have seen the biggest single day fall since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, pushing 10 year yields up30bp. It’s a similar story all over Europe, whilst movement in the US has been relatively tame. NAB’s Taylor Nug…
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The trade war has begun, the battle over Ukraine defences continues.
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19:16Wednesday 5th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It has been an alarming 24 hours. The US has applied tariffs on Mexico and Canada, added to those already applied to China, and pulled funding for Ukraine’s war effort. Share markets have responded the world over, but not as much in…
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Tuesday 4th March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Ukraine is behind a world of difference between US and European markets today. European leaders are resigned to the need to spend more to defend Ukraine and Eastern Europe, pushing bond yields higher and equities also rising sharply, …
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Monday 3rd March 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were two bits of news to drive markets on Friday, First, that press conference that left us wondering whether a peace deal in Ukraine could ever happen, But the gathering of European leaders on Sunday suggests peace could be brok…
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Weekend Edition - Where Australia sits in a Trumpian world
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31:26Friday 28th February 2025 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The consequences of President Trump’s policies are being felt far and wide. The US now has a transactional based approach, even with its allies on areas such as defence which were consi…
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Friday 28th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has made some more sharp moves on tariffs. The date for Mexico and Canada is now back to the middle of next week, and a further 10 percent is to be imposed on China at the same time. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend abo…
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Tariffs: Mexico and Canada delayed, 25% coming Europe’s way
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17:53Thursday 27th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB President Trump has his first cabinet meeting and announced delays on the introduction of tariffs for Mexico and Canada (now April 2nd) and revealed how much Europe will be paying (25%) although he was a bit nonspecific on some o…
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Wednesday 26th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This morning the Aussie dollar is down whilst safe haven currencies have risen, as markets start to assess the risk of US tariffs. A lot of f the moves in the last 24 hours relate to Trump’s comments that Canada and Mexico are d…
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Markets coast as politics turns to peace talks
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15:21Tuesday 25th February 2025 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a bit of buying the dip, says Sally Auld, NAB’s Chief Economist in waiting, on today’s podcast. The S&P tested 6,000 before rising sharply back and finishing well up on the day. Markets seem to be largely ignoring a spate …
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