Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.
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Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrum ...
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Giuseppe Paleologo on Quant Investing at Multi-Strat Hedge Funds
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29:46Quantitative investing is one of those terms that you hear all the time, but there's various explanations of what it actually means, or how quants actually make money. And of course, the term means different things in different contexts. In this live episode, recorded at the Bloomberg Equity Intelligence Summit on June 12, we speak again with Giuse…
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RenMac Off-Script: Is Tehran About to Eat a TACO?
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35:47RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Zichen Wang's Exit Interview From America
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46:53Zichen Wang is the writer of the Pekingnology newsletter, which translates important speeches and articles from China into English, and contextualizes them for Western readers. Over the past year, he's been a master's degree student at Princeton University, although he's recently returned home to resume his career at a think tank in China. His stin…
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Gillian Tett on Complex Derivatives and the Fifth Stage of Capitalism
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47:42After the GFC, there was a lot of angst over the fact that so much effort and brainpower went into designing complex derivatives, and other financial instruments. Not only was this seen as wasteful, the complexity was deemed to be the heart of the crisis, and therefore bad. But all these years later, looking back, how bad is financial complexity re…
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Jim Egan on the Mortgage Gap That's Dividing America
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35:26Somehow, the American consumer remains quite strong. Despite higher interest rates, tariffs, general economic uncertainty and so forth, people are continuing to spend. And yet there are some pockets of weakness that you can observe, especially if you look at delinquency data for various types of credit. But even here the patterns aren’t totally obv…
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The Big Gulf AI Deal That's Divided the White House
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26:50Back in May, President Trump announced this big plan whereby American tech giants would participate in major AI projects in both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The announcement has created divisions within the White House, and more generally among people who are thinking about the intersection of artificial intelligence and geopolitics.…
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RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Trump Economic Advisor, Stephen Miran, on Tariffs and Tax Cuts
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40:25The Trump administration seems to have a lot of big ideas about reshaping America, including its economy. We've seen the unveiling (and delaying) of sweeping tariffs aimed at boosting US manufacturing. The 'Big, Beautiful Bill' is currently working its way through Congress and features a lot of supply-side economic ideas, including an extension of …
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Ricardo Hausmann on What it Takes to Win a Trade War
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44:07The focus of Trump's trade policies is clearly China. There are tariffs on everyone, of course, but it's the growing Chinese manufacturing might, and the various perceived risks associated with that, which have catalyzed this impulse to rethink how America trades with the rest of the world. But can the US actually move the manufacturing center of g…
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Vladislav Zubok on What the Cold War Actually Was
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55:10These days, it's common to talk about the emergence of a New Cold War that exists between the US and China. It's debatable whether or not this is a useful framing. But in order to answer the question, it requires that you have some conception of what the original Cold War actually was. Vladislav Zubok, a professor at the London School of Economics,…
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Bloomberg Businessweek brings you a smart and fun chat show about all things...business. Hosted by award-winning business and economics journalists Max Chafkin (author of The Contrarian: Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley’s Pursuit of Power) and Stacey Vanek Smith (former co-host of NPR’s Planet Money and reporter for Marketplace), Everybody's Business…
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A Major American Egg Farm Just Lost 90% of its Chickens
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21:19Egg prices have come down a lot since their recent record and bird flu has largely faded from the headlines. But the epidemic is still raging and, per one farmer, risks becoming endemic in the US. Glenn Hickman is president of Hickman's Egg Ranch in Arizona, one of the largest egg producers in the US. You might remember him from our series last yea…
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RenMac Off-Script: Caught in a Bad Bromance
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25:36RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Lots More on What America's Busiest Port is Seeing from the Trade Tariffs
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16:52We're about two months on from Liberation Day, and there's still a lot of confusion about what's going on with global trade. Some countries, like China, have been granted delays from tariffs. But other trade restrictions, like the 50% tariff on foreign steel, have come into effect. So what exactly is going on and what impact is this having on the p…
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Jersey City's Mayor on How the City Built So Much Housing
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39:39To some extent, at least in big cities, it feels as though the cost of housing is enveloping almost everything else in terms of politics right now. Booming areas that drive GDP have gotten incredibly expensive in large part thanks to rent, and even the well paid residents are forced to turn over a significant share of their income over to their lan…
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Why It's So Hard for Apple to Move Production from China to India
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46:02President Trump wants Apple to make iPhones in America. The company itself has talked about — and to some extent already has been — moving more of its production to other countries, like India. But in reality, Apple remains deeply, deeply enmeshed in the Chinese supply chain. In fact, the rise of Apple, and the iPhone specifically, is the ultimate …
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What is a currency? This turns out to be one of those questions we just kind of skip over because we don't have clear answers to it (and because economists often like to skip over these foundational things). This special episode of the Odd Lots podcast was recorded as part of Princeton University's “How to Write the Biography of a Currency” event, …
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RenMac Off-Script: TACO: Tariffs Are Constitutional or Not
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32:36RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Krishna Memani on Wall Street's Very Expensive "Free Lunch"
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39:20We're told over and over again that the one "free lunch" in investing is diversification, and that you can improve your returns over time simply by investing in a wider range of assets. This is textbook modern finance. And yet over the past several years this hasn't been the case. An investor would have done great (with the occasional hiccups) just…
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Michael Cembalest on Why AI Is the Stock Market Bet of the Century
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58:52Michael Cembalest has been an investment analyst for almost 40 years and his research notes have drawn a cult following on Wall Street. He's known for going super deep into a wide range of topics, like energy and healthcare. And lately he's been writing a lot about AI, with a particular interest in figuring out whether all the investment in data ce…
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Why Asset Allocators Love Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds
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49:43Multi-strategy hedge funds have been having a moment with big asset allocators pouring billions of dollars into names like Millennium and Citadel. And given all the growth, multi-strat funds have also been battling each other for talent. But why, exactly, do big investors seem to love multi-strats so much? What actually makes a multi-strat good to …
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RenMac Off-Script Podcast: More to Rates than U.S. Fiscal
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37:12RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Zohran Mamdani, the Socialist Who Could Be NYC's New Mayor
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46:58We're just a month away from the hotly-contested Democratic primary for New York City Mayor. And one of the candidates -- Queens assemblyman Zohran Mamdani -- is running on a somewhat unusual platform. Endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, he's proposing rent freezes, universal childcare, higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, fr…
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Why Interest Rates Are Shooting Up All Around the World
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43:20This week the big story in markets is the selloff in bonds. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries jumped 20 basis points from last Friday’s low, while the 30-year rate is back above 5%. Meanwhile, 30-year Japanese government bonds clocked their highest yield since records began in 1999. And rates on UK gilts, German bunds, and Australian bonds …
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Scott Bok on How Bankers Spread the Gospel of Capitalism
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53:25When we think about the prospect of deglobalization (whatever that means) we often think about it in terms of the goods economy. Supply chains get rerouted. Manufacturing becomes more localized, and possibly less efficient. But changes to the global world order also have implications for Wall Street, and the world of dealmaking. On this episode of …
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RenMac Off-Script Podcast: GOP Bond Boo-Boo?
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36:13RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs CelticsBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic on Monetary Policy During Extreme Uncertainty
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48:13This is obviously an extraordinarily difficult time to make economic forecasts. Nobody really knows how tariffs will affect the US economy. And beyond that, nobody knows what the ultimate state of tariffs will be, or if they'll ever settle into a predictable rate. So how do you conduct monetary policy in this environment? On this episode, recorded …
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The Oil Industry's Double Whammy of Higher Costs and Lower Prices
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43:16The new administration has a "drill, baby, drill" mantra and a much more liberal attitude towards the oil and gas industry than the last one. But that hasn't translated into great profits for the oil industry itself. Crude prices have sunk and tariffs have raised the cost of components for companies trying to get energy out of the ground. So, what'…
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Perry Mehrling on Trump's Echoes of the Nixon Shock
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29:04There's been a lot of talk recently about parallels between Donald Trump's economic policies and the Nixon Shock of the early 1970s. That was when the former president took the dollar off the gold standard, introduced hefty tariffs, and pressured the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The moves sparked stagflation in the US and shook up the g…
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Philip Diehl on the Booming Business of Gold Coins
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41:59Gold prices have been booming and are near record highs. And seeing the line go up — especially during a period of so much uncertainty — makes people want to buy more. That includes acquiring actual gold coins. But where do gold coins come from? Why do people want coins, as opposed to just bullion? And who is buying them? On this episode, we speak …
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Why the World Keeps Getting Shocked by China's Technological Progress
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39:01Over the last several years, the world has watched as China edges close to or past the technological frontier in more and more areas. Earlier this year, US investors were jolted even further when DeepSeek's AI model proved to be close to the state of the art American models. So what is the process by which China actually develops new tech? Why has …
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RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a KnickerbockerBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
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Sarah LaFleur On the Existential Threat From the Tariffs
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40:16America's textile industry has famously declined over the years, with a bunch of production moving to lower-cost places like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Now, with the Trump administration imposing heavy tariffs on exports from these countries, the US clothing industry is facing another big shock. In this episode we speak with Sarah LaFleur, fou…
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How China Might Actually Handle a US Trade War
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52:28By now, everyone recognizes that the US and China are in the middle of a trade war, with the Trump administration having imposed tariffs of as much as 125% on Chinese goods. For an export-focused economy like China's, that's a big deal. At the same time, China is pretty much the only major country that's chosen to retaliate against the US with its …
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The Tariff Buzzsaw Is Coming For Hardcore Gamers
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46:52Every industry is going to be affected by the trade war in different ways. In many cases, we don't know how it's going to play out. Other industries are seeing an immediate impact. Companies that specialize in computer gaming are highly reliant on inputs from China and other East Asian countries. These companies assemble customized gaming rigs and …
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Brad Setser on the Big Surge in the Taiwanese Dollar
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29:11There are several markets that have really settled down since the tumult of early April. But strange, unusual things are still popping up, particularly in the currency space. Over the last few days, we've seen a huge surge in the Taiwan dollar. This is important, in part, because Taiwanese life insurance companies are major buyers of US dollar asse…
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Henry Blodget on AI, Dot-Coms, and What's Changed In 25 Years
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54:47What does history say about how big the AI boom can get, and who will ultimately win out? When does a boom turn into a bubble that turns into a bust? On this episode of the podcast, we speak to Henry Blodget, the founder of Business Insider (and Joe's old boss there). In the late '90s, Henry was one of the most well-known Wall Street analysts cover…
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Chris Hughes on How to Craft a Thriving Market
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53:38Over the last several years, both parties in the US have been drifting away from laissez-faire thinking about the economy, and more towards the view that the state has an active role in shaping markets. You have Republicans talking about stricter anti-trust and sovereign wealth funds, and of course Democrats embracing things like industrial policy …
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RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mai…
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What The 'Lentil King of Saskatchewan' Knows About World Trade
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52:03We don't know what the end state for the tariffs are going to be, but inevitably there will be some shifts in the way that goods and dollars flow around the world economy. Of course, some parts of the economy are always subject to changing rules around subsidies and tariffs, and that's particularly true in agriculture. On this episode of the podcas…
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Blackstone's King of Hedge Funds on Alt Investing Right Now
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47:11Everyone knows by now that college endowment funds have gone big on alternative investing, pouring billions of dollars into private equity and hedge funds. But that investing model now seems to be under pressure and there are reports that Ivy League institutions like Yale and Harvard are looking to unload some of their more illiquid investments. So…
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Some of America's Most Important Economic Data Is Decaying
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47:23Gathering official economic data is a huge process in the best of times. But a bunch of different things have now combined to make that process even harder. People aren't responding to surveys like they used to. Survey responses have also become a lot more divided along political lines. And at the same time, the Trump administration wants to cut ba…
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What We Learned About Treasuries on the Night of April 8
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43:25When stocks are plunging in a typical market environment, people reach for safe haven assets like US Treasuries. But we've seen that phenomenon break down more and more. It broke down in a sustained way during the intense inflation of 2022. And it's been breaking down again, in an acute way, since President Trump's so-called "Liberation Day." On th…
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Lots More on How TikTok Options Traders Got Quiet
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21:33Over the last few years, retail traders have gotten into options in a major way. Selling puts, buying calls, trading volatility — what used to be the domain of niche experts engaged in practical hedging has exploded into the public sphere. And there was a lot of easy money during a time when every dip was bought, and stocks mostly just went up. But…
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RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade
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28:15RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.…
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If you look at most of the official hard data right now, there still isn't much evidence of a sharp downturn. Sure, all the surveys are abysmal, but the actual measures of economic activity are ok. But there is already data showing something severe is happening, and that can be seen in the volume of cargo flowing from China to the US. Of course, th…
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David Woo: What Trump Started is Worse Than a Trade War
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45:23For the most part, Americans haven't felt much pain yet from the tariffs that Donald Trump introduced (and then partially walked back) on April 2. The damage is highly visible in financial markets, but for the moment, shelves remain stocked, inflation measures have remained muted, and there hasn't been a significant wave of layoffs in official data…
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Big Take: What a Bacon, Egg and Cheese Teaches Us About the Economy
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20:12When it comes to measuring economic pain, the cost of a humble breakfast sandwich might not be top of mind. But Bloomberg has an index that tracks the rising cost of a bacon, egg and cheese sandwich, plus a cup of coffee. And this year, it’s reached record highs.On today’s Big Take podcast, we hear from people up and down the BEC supply chain — fro…
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This Is What President Biden's CHIPS Office Actually Did
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44:05One of the stated goals for the current trade war is to build more industrial capacity in the United States. So far there doesn't seem to be much of it happening. In fact, all of the manufacturing surveys (and all evidence) so far suggests the reverse. But not that long ago there was a concerted effort to build more factories in the United States. …
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Martin Wolf on Trump's Shakeup of the Global Order
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58:57Martin Wolf has been called one of the world's most important economics commentators, and has for decades written in columns and his own books about the evolution of the global economy, chronicling the rise of globalization and the subsequent pushback to liberal trade. And he's had a lot to write about in recent weeks. President Trump's unveiling o…
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