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Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Walker Crips Investment Management Limited

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This weekly podcast from the team at Walker Crips Investment Management provides an in depth commentary on the macro economic factors driving global markets, whilst also focusing on individual stocks that are making headlines. This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The ...
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Global equity markets delivered strong gains last week, with the United States leading the advance following encouraging developments in trade negotiations and solid earnings results. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher after the US and China reached an agreement to ease trade tensions during talks held in Switzerland. The agreement involves a 90-d…
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Global markets showed mixed results last week, with the US equity market ending lower after a strong performance in the previous week, when the S&P 500 rebounded above its early April decline following President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. The losses were partly offset this week by positive de-escalation developments with China. It was …
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Markets rebounded last week, led by the United States (“US”), as global risk sentiment improved amid signs of de-escalating trade tensions. China confirmed it is evaluating recent US overtures, while negotiations with Mexico progressed constructively. The S&P 500 recovered to levels above the early April decline following Donald Trump’s “Liberation…
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UK economic sentiment weakened sharply last week as global trade tensions intensified. The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) cut the UK’s 2025 growth outlook to 1.1%, the steepest downgrade among major European economies, but noted the UK may still outpace G7 peers. Economic activity slowed sharply, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (…
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Last week, the UK economy grappled with escalating global trade tensions. UK inflation eased more than expected in March, with headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) falling to 2.6% from 2.8%, fuelling expectations of a Bank of England (“BoE”) interest rate cut in May. Core and services inflation also edged lower, reinforcing the view that monetary …
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Last week was marked by turmoil, as global trade tensions and market volatility drove a sharp shift in UK interest rate expectations. Investors are now pricing in up to four Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts this year, with a 0.25% move likely in May and nearly 0.9% of easing by year-end. Former BoE officials called for bold action, including a 0.5…
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Donald Trump’s long-anticipated tariff plan was unveiled last week, marking a significant escalation in US trade policy. At its core is a universal 10% tariff on all imports, supplemented by steep country-specific duties including 34% on China, 32% on Taiwan, 46% on Vietnam and 20% on the European Union (“EU”). These rates were calculated using a d…
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The UK economy continued to display mixed signals, with improved business activity but lingering weaknesses. The composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) hit a six-month high of 52 in March, led by a rebound in services (53.9), though manufacturing slumped to an 18-month low (44.6). Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey emphasised trad…
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The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained its base rate at 4.5% last week, prioritising a gradual approach amid persistent inflation and wage pressures. Markets are now assigning a 70% probability of a May rate cut, with only two reductions anticipated this year, fewer than economists forecasted. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Developm…
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The UK economy showed signs of strain last week, with a cooling jobs market, weak consumer spending and rising corporate distress. Hiring slowed in February, with the smallest increase in starting salaries in four years, while permanent job appointments declined for the 29th month. Consumer spending growth lagged behind inflation, signalling cautio…
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The UK economy faced continued headwinds last week, with slowing growth and persistent inflation concerns. The British Chamber of Commerce cut its 2025 gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3%, citing rising cost pressures. The Bank of England (“BoE”) monthly survey of UK Chief Financial Officers (“CFOs”) showed inflation ex…
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The UK economy showed further signs of strain last week, with job postings hitting a four-year low in January. Wages continued to rise, reaching a record average of £40,846, adding to the Bank of England’s (“BoE”) inflationary concerns. Retailers warned of price increases due to higher national insurance and minimum wage hikes, particularly in the …
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Last week, Bank of England ("BoE") Governor Andrew Bailey reaffirmed a cautious policy stance, highlighting the UK economy’s stagnation despite a slightly stronger fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”). Inflation surprised on the upside, rising to 3% in January - its highest in 10 months - driven by transport and food costs. Wage growth sho…
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The UK economy faced mixed signals last week, with the Bank of England ("BoE") rate cuts struggling to filter through to borrowing costs, partly due to US market influence. Chief Economist Huw Pill warned against assuming inflation is conquered, advocating for a cautious policy approach. Meanwhile, the labour market has weakened significantly, with…
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Last week the Bank of England (“BoE”) cut interest rates by 0.25%, with Governor Andrew Bailey urging caution over the split vote. Markets are still priced in for two more cuts this year, despite inflation forecasts remaining above target until 2027. The UK manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month, with rising input costs squeezing smal…
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The Bank of England (“BoE”) faces a tough policy decision ahead of its 6th February meeting, as economic pressures mount. Business activity has slumped to its weakest since the Covid-19 pandemic, with firms cutting jobs and raising prices in response to tax hikes. Consumer spending remained fragile, and corporate profit warnings are at a post-dot-c…
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The UK economy is grappling with significant challenges as consumer confidence slumped in January, which was reflected in weak survey data from the British Retail Consortium. Industrial sentiment is at a two-year low, with output volumes falling at their steepest rate in four years, signalling more contraction ahead. Bloomberg warned of more freque…
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The UK economy faced mixed signals this week as inflation slowed unexpectedly in December, dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since early 2021, driven by lower energy and food costs. This has heightened expectations for Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts, with the market pricing in three reductions this year. However, core inflation remained stable, and e…
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The UK economy faced significant headwinds in 2024, marked by stagnation and subdued growth. December’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data revealed the weakest private sector performance since October 2023, with composite PMI at 50.4 and a sharp decline in new orders. Rising payroll costs and declining demand drove the steepest fall in employm…
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The Bank of England ("BoE") is expected to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts in the coming months, with a Reuters survey showing a 10% chance of one happening this week. Investors also predict three rate reductions in 2025, totalling 0.75%, so a more measured path than the European Central Bank's ("ECB") anticipated 1.5%. However, the BoE f…
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The UK economy is grappling with challenges as business confidence falters and retail sales dip. The Lloyds Bank business barometer fell to a five-month low of 41%, highlighting economic uncertainty, though firms remain optimistic about their trading prospects. Surveys from the Confederation of British Industry and the Institute of Directors indica…
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Last week, key economic updates highlighted mixed signals for the UK. Bank of England (“BoE”) Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli expressed caution over wage growth trends, warning that a slowdown in wage disinflation might necessitate careful rate cut strategies. BoE official Swati Dhingra noted the UK is no longer an inflation outlier but stressed …
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Last week, the Bank of England (“BoE”) emphasised the labour market's critical role in shaping monetary policy. Policymakers stressed the importance of early 2024 labour market data amidst uncertainty of the budget's potential impacts on wages and employment. Inflation rose in October, with headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) at 2.3% and core inf…
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Last week, UK economic data pointed to continued challenges and mixed signals. Third quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth was disappointing, expanding by only 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, with September’s monthly GDP contracting at 0.1% as production weakened. The Bank of England’s (“BoE”) Chief Economist Huw Pill warned that global shocks c…
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Due to geopolitical uncertainties and a cautious market response to changes in fiscal policy, UK economic indicators were mixed. Growth slowed in the services sector, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) hitting 52.0, reflecting hesitation from the Autumn Budget and geopolitical influences. Inflation data showed some improvement, especially …
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The UK economy showed mixed signals last week, with key developments impacting market expectations. The budget delivered by Rachel Reeves, which included a £70 billion spending boost, led to predictions of a shallower rate-cutting cycle by the Bank of England (“BoE”). A Reuters poll indicated economists largely expect a cautious BoE approach, with …
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The construction and infrastructure services company Morgan Sindall Group saw a share price rise of 14.91% last week following a strong trading update. The update highlighted better-than-anticipated performance, prompting analysts to increase earnings per share (“EPS”) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 7%. The company’s Fit Out division showed robust …
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Last week's UK economic data painted a mixed picture ahead of the Bank of England's (“BoE”) November policy meeting. Inflation has dropped below the 2% target for the first time since 2021, reaching 1.7%, driven by lower energy costs and eased supply chain pressures. Meanwhile, a notable minimum wage hike has underpinned pay growth for low-wage wor…
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The UK economy returned to growth, expanding by 0.2% after two months of stagnation, according to reports from The Times, Reuters and Bloomberg. This growth was driven by strong rebounds in manufacturing and construction, despite weaker-than-expected growth in the services sector. Retail sales showed resilience, rising 2% in September, the fastest …
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Lloyds' Business Barometer indicated a dip in UK business confidence in September, the lowest level in three months. The data suggests businesses are cautious about the broader economic outlook but still expect strong trading, highlighting concerns over inflation, investment, and potential fiscal policy changes ahead of the upcoming budget. Bank of…
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Last week saw the Bank of England (“BoE”) maintain a cautious tone on the future trajectory of interest rates. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that while inflation has made significant progress toward the BoE’s 2% target, a gradual approach to interest rate cuts is necessary to ensure sustainable price stability. His comments come after the BoE decide…
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The Bank of England ("BoE") has left policy unchanged in the short term. Still, it may accelerate rate cuts in the final quarter of 2024 with weakening economic momentum, cracks in the labour market, and softening manufacturing outputs signalling a need for further easing. However, persistent inflationary pressures, especially in core and services …
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The Bank of England (“BoE”) is texpected to hold interest rates at 5.00%his week, with economists forecasting further rate cuts in its November and December meeting, potentially bringing the year-end rate to 4.50%. Attention is also on the BoE’s quantitative tightening plans, as there are growing calls to increase the sale of short-dated gilts to b…
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Recent data from Reed Recruitment shows UK wage growth is no longer declining and is now stabilising, which may pose a challenge to the Bank of England (“BoE”) and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. As sectors like construction and hospitality face skill shortages, rising wages could force a rethink on easing policies. Despite this, analysts remain optim…
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Summary: The UK experienced a combination of positive and negative economic indicators. The government faces the difficult task of balancing the budget, which could lead to tax increases and spending cuts. Various factors, including financial data, political developments, and corporate earnings impacted global markets. US equities experienced a mix…
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Summary: Last week UK stocks remained relatively flat, with the FTSE 100 index closing 0.3% lower. Sterling rose above $1.32, representing its highest level in over a year against the dollar. This increase was driven by rising expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve ("Fed") next month. However, a stronger sterling added pressure…
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The UK economic landscape is currently marked by mixed signals, particularly regarding inflation and labour market dynamics. The Bank of England's (“BoE”) more hawkish member, Catherine Mann, remains sceptical about the disinflation process, highlighting persistent wage pressures that could take years to subside. Despite recent inflation data showi…
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Last week saw various economic developments, including the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (“NIESR”) publishing its forecast, predicting a slower interest rate cut cycle by the Bank of England than the market expects. NIESR anticipates that economic recovery will accelerate, prompting the BoE to maintain higher interest rates for…
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The Bank of England ("BoE") recently made its first rate cut in over four years, stirring cautious optimism about the UK's economic future. Although BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledged an improved outlook, he noted the growth rate remains modest at around 1% annually from 2024 to 2026. The narrow 5-4 vote for the rate cut underscores persiste…
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A Reuters poll showed most economists are expecting a Bank of England ("BoE") interest rate cut, with mixed UK data causing some to push expectations from August to September. The absence of comments from BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey, due to the election, has deprived the market of crucial signals. Despite a two-month high in the UK's purchasing man…
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On Friday, a global IT outage linked to issues with a CrowdStrike cybersecurity update affecting Microsoft software disrupted businesses and services worldwide. In the UK, train companies, major airlines, airports and GP surgeries experienced significant disruptions, with Edinburgh and Birmingham airports particularly affected. Financial sectors we…
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The latest UK gross domestic product (“GDP”) estimate showed a 0.4% expansion in May, surpassing expectations due to growth in industrial production, services and construction. Over the past three months, GDP grew by 0.9%, the strongest since January 2022, with services contributing significantly. This aligns with purchasing managers index data, hi…
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Recent updates indicate an optimistic shift in the UK economy. KPMG has revised its gross domestic product growth forecast for 2024 from 0.3% to 0.5% and projects 0.9% growth for 2025. This is supported by anticipated Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts, potentially reducing the bank rate to 3% next year. This economic boost is further aided by polit…
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Last week, the UK's economic landscape presented a nuanced view. The Office for National Statistics revised first quarter gross domestic product ("GDP") growth up to 0.7%. Growth was driven by robust expansions in services and production, despite the construction sector experiencing a decline. Despite a 0.7% positive uptick in real household dispos…
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UK inflation continued to ease in May, with the headline rate at 2.0% year-on-year, down from 2.3% in the 12 months to April, marking the lowest rate since July 2021. Core inflation was 3.5%, while services prices remained high at 5.7%. The largest downward pressure came from food prices, while motor fuels and transport costs drove inflation up. Th…
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UK unemployment grew and wage growth stabilised last week after UK labour market data presented a mixed economic outlook. The May unemployment claimant count increased by 50,400, increasing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Payrolled workers dropped by 3,000, and vacancies declined by 12,000 to 904,000. Despite these signs of a cooling job market, ave…
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UK inflation expectations continue to ease with the Citi/YouGov inflation tracker for May showing a decline to 3.1%, ahead of expectations and the lowest since July 2021. The Bank of England’s ("BOE") Decision Maker Panel survey indicated steady short-term inflation expectations but noted a potential stall in the disinflationary process. Encouragin…
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The Bank of England's ("BOE") outgoing Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, defended the bank’s policy-making process against accusations of groupthink, highlighting robust discussions at meetings. While acknowledging progress on inflation, Broadbent hinted at possible rate cuts ahead of the BOE's next meeting in the coming months. Meanwhile, there has …
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UK inflation eased sharply in April to 2.3% year-on-year, surpassing market consensus and Bank of England (“BOE”) forecasts of 2.1%, marking the lowest rate since summer 2021. While gas and electricity prices declined, motor fuel prices increased, slightly offsetting the downward pressure. However, core inflation remained sticky, recording a 3.9% f…
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There is a continued expectation that the Bank of England ("BOE") will be cautious in lowering interest rates, unlike during past rate-cutting cycles. Bloomberg and Reuters reported concerns about inflation reaccelerating if rates are lowered too quickly due to past downturns such as those in 1998, 2001 and 2008. Markets are currently pricing in th…
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