PROPHET PROFITS LOSSES: Jimmy and Matt revisit their summer 2024 AI Predictions

Preparing for AI: The AI Podcast for Everybody

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Have you ever wondered how accurate Jimmy and Matt's AI predictions about AI really are? Probably not, but in in this revealing episode, they are going to do it anyway. Revisiting some pretty wild forecasts from summer 2024 they see what they got right, what they missed, and what surprised them along the way. If nothing else it shows how rapidly AI is changing and how decades of deveopment are being condensed into months.
The duo dive into language model development, finding that while they correctly anticipated Claude 3.5, OpenAI's confusing naming conventions (GPT-4o, GPT-4 Mini, and more) threw their straightforward GPT-5 prediction off track. Matt's assessment of Google's rise to prominence with agentic models appears spot-on, with Google steadily integrating AI capabilities across their ecosystem in ways that prioritize practical utility over novelty.
Perhaps most thought-provoking is their examination of predictions about AI's societal impact. The conversation takes a sobering turn when discussing their forecast of "massive societal upheaval from AI replacing jobs" and potential mass protests by 2026. While these events haven't materialized yet, both hosts stand firm in their belief that significant disruption lies ahead, with Jimmy boldly asserting that AI could eventually replace "all white collar jobs" - a claim Matt challenges by questioning how society could even reach such a point without collapsing first.
The episode offers fascinating insights when the hosts react to the world's first fully AI-generated advertisement that aired just last week during the NBA finals. This $2,000 Kalshi ad featuring bizarre imagery of crocodile riding and egg baths serves as a real-time validation of one of their predictions about AI-generated content.
Whether you're an AI enthusiast, concerned about technology's impact on employment, or simply enjoy a thoughtful discussion about our collective future, this episode delivers engaging perspectives on where we've been and where we're heading. What predictions will come true next? Listen now to join the conversation about our AI future.

Chapters

1. Introduction and Podcast Overview (00:00:00)

2. Revisiting Past AI Predictions (00:01:57)

3. Evaluating 2024 Model Predictions (00:04:16)

4. Google's Agentic Models and Leadership (00:06:20)

5. Text-to-Video Technology Assessment (00:10:44)

6. Future of Jobs and Home Robots (00:16:57)

7. Societal Upheaval and Policy Predictions (00:31:18)

8. Final New Predictions and Conclusion (00:44:38)