CropGPT - Sugar - Week 19

CropGPT - Sugar

This episode presents a comprehensive overview of the global sugar market, focusing on trade policy developments, regional production dynamics, and strategic agricultural initiatives.

• United Kingdom: The UK sugar industry welcomed the exclusion of sugar concessions in the UK–India trade agreement. The move protects domestic beet growers from subsidized Indian sugar, which the WTO previously identified as non-compliant with trade rules. Attention now turns to the 2026 review of autonomous tariff quotas for raw cane sugar imports.
• India: Despite WTO rulings, sugar production subsidies persist due to deadlock within the organization’s appellate body. Strong monsoons and expanded cultivation areas are expected to increase India’s sugar output by 26% to 35 million tons for the season. These favorable conditions are likely to apply further downward pressure on global prices.
• Ukraine: Ukraine has initiated sugar exports to Côte d'Ivoire, strengthening ties with African markets. However, EU export quota constraints could lead to a 15–20% reduction in domestic sugar beet acreage.
• Brazil: The onset of the sugarcane harvest is boosting global sugar availability, contributing to recent price declines. Brazil’s output trends, combined with expectations of India’s strong harvest, are key drivers of the current bearish pricing environment.
• Cuba: The sugar sector faces acute production declines due to systemic inefficiencies, outdated infrastructure, and input shortages. These constraints threaten the sustainability of a sector historically central to the Cuban economy.
• Kenya: Sugar production is projected to fall by 20% in the current marketing year due to diminished harvest areas. The expected shortfall is prompting a 38% increase in sugar imports from COMESA and EAC member countries to stabilize domestic supply.
• Philippines: In response to climate volatility and pest challenges, the government is supporting the development of drought- and disease-resistant sugarcane varieties. Backed by the Department of Science and Technology, these hybrids are intended to sustain and enhance future yield potential.