Market Rally: Your Guide to Smarter Investing

The SPY Trader

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1263. Good morning, traders! This is Captain Cash, your friendly guide through the financial seas, and you're tuned into Spy Trader. It's 6 am on Wednesday, June 25th, 2025, Pacific time, and we've got a lot to unpack from the markets.Alright folks, let's dive into the key headlines that shaped our world. The US stock market has been on a bit of a roller coaster, but lately, it's showing some positive momentum. The S&P 500, or US500, recently climbed to 6106 points, a nice 0.23% gain from its last session, and it's up over 11% compared to this time last year. Just yesterday, June 24th, we saw a surge with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.2%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite adding 1.4%. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are either hitting or nearing record highs, with the Nasdaq 100 actually closing at a record. Now, this positive mood largely stems from some significant geopolitical developments. We're seeing news of a ceasefire agreement that looks like it could end a Middle East conflict, which has certainly eased investor fears and led to a slide in oil prices, down nearly 20% from recent highs.On the home front, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its June meeting, keeping the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned he needs more time to assess the economic impact of tariffs before adjusting policy, though he’s open to cuts if the situation warrants. The Fed’s latest projections still show expectations for two rate cuts in 2025. Speaking of tariffs, the White House's evolving trade policy is creating some uncertainty, with expectations that companies will pass increased costs from these tariffs onto consumers, potentially leading to rising inflation in the coming months.And for a bit of industry news, the NYSE Texas has officially opened its doors, marking the first securities exchange incorporated in Texas.Looking at the broader economy, the Consumer Price Index increased 2.4% in May yearoveryear, and while Core CPI is up 2.8%, inflation is trending down, despite those tariffrelated price hike concerns. Treasury yields have moved lower recently. The US economy added fewer jobs in May than April, but the labor market is still considered healthy. While firstquarter GDP showed a contraction of 0.3%, the Atlanta Fed's realtime estimate for the second quarter points to a strong 3.4% growth, suggesting a rebound. Consumer spending actually increased in April, as folks pulled purchases forward to avoid future tariffrelated price hikes, but overall consumer sentiment has dropped sharply due to anxiety about higher prices.Earnings season has been quite interesting. Firstquarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies was an estimated 12.9%, marking the second consecutive quarter of doubledigit growth. Recent strong earners include Darden Restaurants, CarMax, and Kroger, all topping estimates. Korn Ferry also saw its stock soar. On the company specific front, Broadcom rose nearly 4% to a record high yesterday. EchoStar saw a significant gain of almost 50% last week, and Coinbase was up over 27%. However, some solar stocks like Sunrun, Solaredge Technologies, and Enphase Energy experienced notable declines.Now, let's talk about what this all means for your portfolio. The market's recent surge is definitely a reaction to the deescalation of Middle East tensions, which has boosted investor sentiment and brought oil prices down. Technology and communication services, especially semiconductors, are still leading the pack, showing strong investor confidence in growth. Financials are also looking resilient. However, there are still underlying concerns. The Fed's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, despite those 2025 projections, highlights ongoing inflation and growth uncertainties. That potential for tariffdriven inflation could really squeeze consumer spending and corporate margins, particularly in consumer discretionary sectors. This divergence in sector performance, with defensive sectors like consumer staples performing better earlier in the year than consumer discretionary, hints that some investors are still quite cautious about the economic outlook.So, what are Captain Cash's recommendations for you? First off, stay informed on geopolitics and macroeconomics. Seriously, keep a close eye on Middle East developments, as they've proven to have a direct and immediate impact on the market. Also, pay attention to every word from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and inflation data. Unexpected shifts here can lead to rapid market reactions.Second, be vigilant with your sectors. While tech and communication services have been absolute stars, it's wise to evaluate if their valuations are truly reflecting future growth potential. Take a look at financial stocks for their stability and potential benefits from the current rate environment. On the flip side, be cautious with the energy sector if oil and gas prices continue to slide due to easing tensions. And be discerning with consumer discretionary stocks due to those potential tariff impacts and shifts in consumer sentiment. Remember, what performed well yesterday might not perform well tomorrow.Third, do your companylevel due diligence. Even in a rising market, individual company performance can be wildly different. Focus on companies with strong fundamentals, resilient business models, and healthy balance sheets. And pay extra close attention to their earnings reports, especially for companies that might be more exposed to tariff impacts or changes in consumer spending.Fourth, consider diversification and risk management. Always maintain a diversified portfolio across different sectors, asset classes like bonds, and even geographies to mitigate risks. Make sure to rebalance your portfolio periodically to keep it aligned with your risk tolerance and your financial goals. A welldiversified portfolio is your best friend for longterm stability.Finally, maintain a longterm perspective. Don't make impulsive decisions based on shortterm market fluctuations. Focus on your longterm investment objectives. Market volatility is just part of the game, and a longterm view allows you to ride out those shortterm bumps and benefit from compounding growth over time.That's all for this edition of Spy Trader! Until next time, stay smart, stay diversified, and keep an eye on those charts! Captain Cash, signing off!