Tough Week: Are We There Yet?

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🇦🇷 Argentina Rushes Exports Ahead of Tariff Expiry
Crop traders in Argentina are rushing to secure export licenses before tariff relief ends on June 30. President Javier Milei’s temporary cuts—🎯 soybean meal/oil from 31% to 24.5% and 🌽 corn from 12% to 9.5%—sparked a surge in exports, making June the busiest month since he took office. The move aimed to support farmers and boost foreign reserves ahead of October’s midterms. 🚜💰 Ag groups are urging an extension.

🌧️ Rain Brings Drought Relief Across U.S. Corn Belt
Last week’s rainfall helped ease drought conditions across major growing regions like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. 🙌 Just 6% of the Corn Belt remains in drought. Nebraska and the High Plains also saw some improvements.

📊 Drought by Crop:

• Corn: 16%
• Soybeans: 12%
• Winter Wheat: 20%
• Spring Wheat: 25%
• Cattle Areas: 18%

📉 U.S. Export Sales Dip

• Corn: 741,200mt (29M bu), ↓18% from last week; 🇨🇴 Colombia top buyer.
• Soybeans: 402,900mt (15M bu), ↓16% weekly but ↑83% vs. 4-week avg; 🇳🇱 Netherlands top buyer.
• Wheat: 255,200mt (9M bu), ↓40% from last week; 🇯🇵 Japan top buyer.

📅 Key USDA Report Coming Monday
The USDA will release the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Monday morning. Expectations:

• Slight increases in 🌽 corn and 🌱 soybean acreage
• Corn stocks: ↓7% YoY
• Soybean stocks: ↑1%, 5-year high
• Wheat stocks: ↑20%, 4-year high
  📉 Market action suggests traders expect a bearish report.

🇷🇺 Russia’s Banking Sector in Trouble?
Analysts warn of a potential financial crisis by 2026. Rising bad debt, high interest rates, and borrowers falling behind on loans are fueling a credit crunch. 💸
Despite record bank profits in 2024, inflation and war-focused spending are straining the private sector. Trillions of rubles in bad loans may already be in the system.
🚢 Soybean Flash Sale & Egypt Corn Order

• USDA reported a 110,000mt corn sale to 🇪🇬 Egypt for 2024/25.
• Cumulative soybean sales are up 11% YoY for the current marketing year.

☀️ Weekend Weather Outlook: Warm & Wet
Rainfall is expected across the 🌽 Midwest through Sunday, with above-normal temps.
Agronomists are confident: subsoil moisture is strong going into July, a critical month for corn growth. 🌾🌦️