Pre-Trading Thoughts

Al Ahly Pharos

We published this morning our earnings expectations sheet for companies under coverage in 1Q25/FY25, with the following key conclusions:

• In FY25, aggregated net profit is expected to increase 10% YoY
• Stocks that are expected to witness a shift from net loss to net profit YoY in 1Q25: ORHD and EGCH
• Stocks that are expected to witness a spike (>80%) in net profit growth YoY in 1Q25: MBSC, CNFN, FAIT, MCQE, and ARCC. (sorted from highest rise in net profit)
• Stocks trading at P/E 2025 less than 5x: CCAP, EGBE, CICH, ADIB, and CANA. (sorted from lowest P/E)

Please refer to our sheet published this morning for detailed earnings expectations and trading multiples.

Egypt’s total local and foreign debt repayment obligations are projected to jump around 30% to EGP2.1 trillion in the next fiscal year, up from an estimated EGP1.6 trillion for FY24/25.

The Finance Ministry intends to issue new local debt instruments worth EGP1.5 trillion in the upcoming fiscal year, up from EGP1.2 trillion in the current fiscal year, as part of the government's plan to raise spending on social welfare and narrow the budget deficit.

Egypt is among six Arab countries set to face a significant impact from Trump’s tariff regime, assuming the tariff measures are fully implemented, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) said in a policy brief. A significant impact is defined as at least 5% of a country’s global exports going to the US.

The state is working to liberalize the country’s electricity market by 2026, along with restructuring the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) and its separation from the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC).

Federation of Egyptian Industries delegation is in Riyadh to talk investment in the Kingdom during a three-day business forum that wraps tomorrow.

The government has estimated the financial allocations needed to import LNG and diesel shipments to meet the country's fuel needs during FY25/26 at approximately USD9.5 billion, compared to more than USD6 billion spent so far this year.

President El-Sisi approved a USD500 million loan agreement from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) to finance the Development Policy Financing for Resilience program.

Scatec’s 1 GW Obelisk solar plant will be connected to the grid by 220 kV transmission lines built under a contract between the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) with the consortium of Kharafi National and Power Ring. The project is planned to power EGAL’s aluminum complex in Nagaa Hammadi.

CCAP's United Foundries Company is planning to invest up to USD10 million in a new foundry in Helwan focusing on producing castings for the gold mining and cement industries, adding some 40k tons to the company’s production capacity and bringing total output to around 70k tons annually.

Hilton will open two new hotels in the New Capital. The two hotels, Hilton Cairo New Capital Downtown and Hilton Garden Inn Cairo New Capital Downtown, are scheduled to open in 2028.