Causal Assumptions And Large Language Models | Season 6 Episode 2 Casual Inference podcast

52:05

Carly Brantner is an assistant professor of Biostatistics & Bioinformatics at Duke University and Duke Clinical Research Institute. Follow along on Bluesky: Carly: @carlybrantner.bsky.social Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade . Edited by Cameron Bopp .…

Casual Inference

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The Art of Clarity with Andrew Heiss | Season 6 Episode 6 49:31

16 days ago49:31

49:31

Andrew Heiss is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Management and Policy at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. Vincent’s “What is your estimand” section in his {marginaleffects} book: https://marginaleffects.com/chapters/challenge.html#sec-goals_estimand Article on defining estimands: https://doi.org/10.1177/00031224211004187 Andrew's marginal effects post: https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/05/20/marginalia/ Andrew's post on “fixed effects” and mariginal effects across different disciplines: https://www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2022/11/29/conditional-marginal-marginaleffects/ Follow along on Bluesky: Andrew: @andrew.heiss.phd Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade . Edited by Cameron Bopp .…

Casual Inference

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Study Critique: What Went Wrong and How We'd Do It Differently | Season 6 Episode 5 55:22

5 weeks ago55:22

55:22

In this episode Lucy and Ellie dig into a recently publicized paper, "Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid" , which has gained attention after being promoted by RFK Jr. as evidence that vaccines cause autism. Ellie breaks down her Substack critique of the study. Together, she and Lucy discuss the methodological flaws and what a better version of this study might look like. Vaccination and Neurodevelopmental Disorders: A Study of Nine-Year-Old Children Enrolled in Medicaid: https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/vaccination-and-neurodevelopmental-disorders-a-study-of-nine-year-old-children-enrolled-in-medicaid/ RFK Jr is promoting a new study claiming "vaccines cause autism" but it doesn't add up. Literally [Ellie's substack]: https://epiellie.substack.com/p/rfk-jr-is-promoting-a-new-study-claiming Follow along on Bluesky: Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade . Edited by Cameron Bopp .…

Casual Inference

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From Model to Meaning with Vincent Arel-Bundock | Season 6 Episode 4 45:20

7 weeks ago45:20

45:20

Vincent Arel-Bundock is a professor at the Université de Montréal, where he studies comparative and international political economy. Vincent's website: https://arelbundock.com/ Vincent's book "Model to Meaning: How to Interpret Statistical Models With marginaleffects for R and Python": https://marginaleffects.com/ Follow along on Bluesky: Vincent: @vincentab.bsky.social Ellie: @epiellie.bsky.social Lucy: @lucystats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade . Edited by Cameron Bopp .…

Casual Inference

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Propensity Scores, R Packages, and Practical Advice with Noah Greifer | Season 6 Episode 3 1:22:09

9 weeks ago1:22:09

1:22:09

Noah Greifer is a statistical consultant and programmer at Harvard University. Episode notes: WeightIt package: https://ngreifer.github.io/WeightIt/ MatchIt package: https://kosukeimai.github.io/MatchIt/ Noah's awesome Stack Exchange post: https://stats.stackexchange.com/a/544958 Follow along on Bluesky: Noah: @noahgreifer.bsky.social Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade . Edited by Cameron Bopp .…

Casual Inference

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Causal Assumptions and Large Language Models | Season 6 Episode 2 51:51

11 weeks ago51:51

51:51

Lucy and Ellie chat about large language models, chat interfaces, and causal inference. Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?: https://arxiv.org/html/2412.10635v1 Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade . Edited by Cameron Bopp .…

Casual Inference

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Data Integration for Impact with Len Testa | Season 6 Episode 1 44:48

15 weeks ago44:48

44:48

Lucy chats with Len Testa about a recent analysis he did which combined over 150 publicly available data sources to answer a question about the affordability of Disney World. Len's Deep Dive Post on the Touring Plans Blog [ Blog Post ] Wall Street Journal Artcile, "Even Disney Is Worried About the High Cost of a Disney Vacation" [ Article ] Follow along on Bluesky: Len: @lentesta.bsky.social Ellie: @EpiEllie.bsky.social Lucy: @LucyStats.bsky.social 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade…

Casual Inference

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Starting the Conversation on Models with Alyssa Bilinski | Season 5 Episode 11 48:12

48 weeks ago48:12

48:12

Alyssa Bilinski, Peterson Family Assistant Professor of Health Policy, and Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, at Brown University School of Public Health. Her research focuses on developing novel methods for policy evaluation and applying these to identify interventions that most efficiently improve population health and well-being. Episode notes: PNAS paper: https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2302528120 Shuo Feng’s pre-print: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.04.08.24305335v1 Our uncertainty paper: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33475686/ Follow along on Twitter: Alyssa: @ambilinski The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Cameron Bopp…

Casual Inference

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Flexible methods with Edward Kennedy | Season 5 Episode 10 38:57

50 weeks ago38:57

38:57

Edward Kennedy Associate Professor, Department of Statistics & Data Science, Carnegie Mellon. ehkennedy.com Evaluating a Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimator for Capture-Recapture Analysis: An Application to HIV Surveillance in San Francisco, California: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/193/4/673/7425624 Doubly Robust Capture-Recapture Methods for Estimating Population Size: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2023.2187814 Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Cameron Bopp…

Casual Inference

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What Sports and Feminism can tell us about Causal Inference with Sheree Bekker & Stephen Mumford | Season 5 Episode 9 49:43

1 year ago49:43

49:43

Sheree Bekker & Stephen Mumford are Co-directors of the Feminist Sport Lab and have a book coming soon: “Open Play: the case for feminist sport”, coming Spring 2025. Reaktion Books (UK), University of Chicago Press (US). Sheree Bekker: Associate Professor, University of Bath, Department for Health , Centre for Qualitative Research Centre for Health and Injury and Illness Prevention in Sport Stephen Mumford, Professor of Metaphysics, Durham University A Author of Dispositions (Oxford, 1998), Russell on Metaphysics (Routledge, 2003), Laws in Nature (Routledge, 2004), David Armstrong (Acumen, 2007), Watching Sport: Aesthetics, Ethics and Emotion (Routledge, 2011), Getting Causes from Powers (Oxford, 2011 with Rani Lill Anjum), Metaphysics: a Very Short Introduction (Oxford, 2012) and Causation: a Very Short Introduction (Oxford, 2013 with Rani Lill Anjum). I was editor of George Molnar's posthumous Powers: a Study in Metaphysics (Oxford, 2003) and Metaphysics and Science (Oxford, 2013 with Matthew Tugby). Feminist Sport Lab: https://www.feministsportlab.com Causation: A Very Short Introduction by Stephen Mumford & Rani Lill Anjum: https://academic.oup.com/book/616 Faye Norby, Iditarod champion & epidemiologist: https://www.kfyrtv.com/2024/03/28/faye-norby-finishes-iditarod-trail-womens-foot-champion/?outputType=amp Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Cameron Bopp…

Casual Inference

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Observational Causal Analyses with Erick Scott | Season 5 Episode 8 51:43

1 year ago51:43

51:43

Erick Scott is founder of cStructure, a causal science startup. Erick has expertise in medicine, public health, and computational biology. info@cStructure.io “A causal roadmap for generating high-quality real-world evidence” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10603361/ Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Cameron Bopp…

Casual Inference

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Friends Let Friends Do Mediation Analysis with Nima Hejazi | Season 5 Episode 7 59:07

1 year ago59:07

59:07

Nima Hejazi is an assistant professor in biostatistics at Harvard University. His methodological work often draws upon tools and ideas from semi- and non-parametric inference, high-dimensional and large-scale inference, targeted or debiased machine learning (e.g., targeted minimum loss estimation, method of sieves), and computational statistics. Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers by Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo: https://www.jstor.org/stable/44955325 Nima is on Twitter/X as @nshejazi ( https://twitter.com/nshejazi ) and my academic webpage is https://nimahejazi.org Recent translational review paper (intended for the infectious disease science community) I was involved in describing some causal/statistical frameworks for evaluating immune markers as mediators / surrogate endpoints: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38458870/ The tlverse software ecosystem is on GitHub at https://github.com/tlverse and the tlverse handbook is freely available at https://tlverse.org/tlverse-handbook/ Dr. Hejazi annually co-teaches a causal mediation analysis workshop at SER, and notes from the latest offering are freely available at https://codex.nimahejazi.org/ser2023_mediation_workshop/ Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Cameron Bopp…

Casual Inference

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Fun and Game(s) Theory with Aaditya Ramdas | Season 5 Episode 6 48:23

1 year ago48:23

48:23

Aaditya Ramdas is an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, in the Departments of Statistics and Machine Learning. His research interests include game-theoretic statistics and sequential anytime-valid inference, multiple testing and post-selection inference, and uncertainty quantification for machine learning (conformal prediction, calibration). His applied areas of interest include neuroscience, genetics and auditing (real-estate, finance, elections). Aaditya received the IMS Peter Gavin Hall Early Career Prize, the COPSS Emerging Leader Award, the Bernoulli New Researcher Award, the NSF CAREER Award, the Sloan fellowship in Mathematics, and faculty research awards from Adobe and Google. He also spends 20% of his time at Amazon working on causality and sequential experimentation. Aaditya’s website: https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~aramdas/ Game theoretic statistics resources Aaditya’s course, Game-theoretic probability, statistics, and learning: https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~aramdas/gtpsl/index.html Papers of interest: Time-uniform central limit theory and asymptotic confidence sequences: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.06476 Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference: https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.01948 Discussion papers: Safe Testing: https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.07801 Testing by Betting: https://academic.oup.com/jrsssa/article/184/2/407/7056412 Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting: https://academic.oup.com/jrsssb/article/86/1/1/7043257 Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Cameron Bopp…

Casual Inference

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Cookies, Causal Inference, and Careers with Ingrid Giesinger #Epicookiechallenge | Season 5 Episode 5 46:49

1 year ago46:49

46:49

Ingrid is a doctoral student in Epidemiology at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. Winning cookie recipe Follow along on Twitter: The American Journal of Epidemiology: @AmJEpi Ellie: @EpiEllie Lucy: @LucyStats 🎶 Our intro/outro music is courtesy of Joseph McDade Edited by Cameron Bopp…

Casual Inference

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Analyzing the Analysts: Reproducibility with Nick Huntington-Klein | Season 5 Episode 4 45:44

1 year ago45:44