Why Resource Stocks Dip in Spring, Rise in Fall

Company Interviews

Compass, episode 16

Our previous interview: www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/silver-companies-merging-to-gain-scale-in-rising-market-7145

Recording date: 20 May 2025

Resource exploration companies operating in northern regions like Canada and Alaska follow a predictable seasonal pattern that creates potential investment opportunities for informed investors. According to experts Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson from Olive Resource Capital, these "seasonal explorers" operate primarily during summer months due to weather constraints, creating a predictable annual cycle in both operations and stock performance.

The cycle begins in late spring (May) when companies announce exploration programs and mobilize crews. Summer (June-August) brings active exploration with ongoing drilling programs and preliminary updates. By fall (September-November), companies release results from summer programs, often coinciding with major industry conferences. Winter and spring (December-April) see limited operational activity and news flow, typically resulting in declining share prices.

A significant factor influencing this pattern is the structure of flow-through funding in Canada. Flow-through funds, which provide tax advantages to investors, often conduct raises in the fall that must be deployed by year-end. These investments typically have a four-month hold period, creating selling pressure around April when funds liquidate positions to return capital to investors.

This selling pressure, combined with the natural lull in news flow during spring, creates potential buying opportunities for investors who understand the pattern. The experts suggest that 2025 presents unique circumstances, with the resource sector having stronger momentum than in previous years, particularly in copper and gold.

For investors looking to capitalize on these patterns, the experts recommend identifying companies operating in areas with defined seasonal constraints, focusing on early-stage companies where the pattern is more pronounced, and considering companies with multiple assets that can maintain year-round news flow.

Currently (May 2025), the experts suggest this may be an opportune time for entry positions in seasonal explorers, particularly in gold and copper, with potential exit opportunities in the fall when exploration results are reported.

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