Scott Lincicome on Trump's New Tariff Regime: Unpredictability, Uncertainty, and Risk

Conversations with Bill Kristol

How is President Trump’s new tariff regime different from the trade deals of his first term? How might the new tariffs affect American businesses, consumers, and the country's macroeconomic outlook?
To discuss, we are joined by Scott Lincicome, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a columnist at The Dispatch. Drawing on his own background as a trade lawyer, Lincicome analyzes the effects of Trump’s tariffs on American firms and consumers. Lincicome shares real-world examples of the knock-on effects of introducing new tariffs without warning, the burden of compliance with complex and untested customs regulations, and how arbitrary exemptions favor large corporations over smaller firms. Lincicome argues that the tariffs could substantially squeeze American consumers in the months ahead—and considers the intended and unintended consequences of the policies could hamper American competitiveness in the years to come.