Cocoa Crisis - and Brazil's Leadership

CropGPT - Cocoa

Episode Overview:

Chocolate lovers everywhere have been feeling the pinch — and today we unpack why. Cocoa prices have skyrocketed, production is at its lowest in over a decade, and the traditional cocoa supply chain is under immense strain. In this episode, we explore:

• Why cocoa prices hit a historic high of over $12,900 per ton
• The devastating production drop in West Africa, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana
• Major threats: aging trees, swollen shoot virus, and climate change
• Why many cocoa farmers aren't benefiting from high prices
• Brazil’s ambitious rise — from collapse to potential world leader in cocoa
• The risks and rewards of Brazil’s new cocoa mega farms
• Latin America’s growing role and Ecuador’s success story
• How climate resilience and farmer-centric approaches are reshaping cocoa’s future
• Three potential scenarios for the cocoa market through 2030

Key Topics:

• The Cocoa Price Surge: Causes behind the record price increases and their global impact.
• West Africa’s Crisis: Aging farms, disease, and climate threats leading to a major production collapse.
• Brazil’s Comeback: How Brazil is planning to double cocoa output through mega farms and agroforestry.
• Risks of Monoculture: Why genetic diversity matters in large-scale farming.
• Farmer-Centric Innovations: New programs in Colombia and Ghana designed to stabilize incomes and promote sustainability.
• Climate Resilience Efforts: Breeding tougher trees, improving soils, and rethinking farming practices.
• The Big Picture: Managed recovery, structural deficit, or overshoot and bust — where is cocoa headed?

Takeaways:

• The cocoa market is at a crossroads — with massive uncertainty about its future.
• Sustainability, resilience, and empowering farmers will be critical to stabilizing supply.
• Latin America, especially Brazil, may redefine the global cocoa landscape.
• Investment, innovation, and global cooperation are urgently needed to secure chocolate’s future.