CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 20

CropGPT - Cocoa

CropGPT Weekly Cocoa Market Update

Episode Date: May 18, 2025

Welcome to this week’s global cocoa market summary, brought to you by CropGPT. For comprehensive analysis and data, visit our website where you’ll find full crop health reports, weather archives, pricing dashboards, and earnings call insights.

📍 West Africa: Cocoa Supply Under Pressure

Ivory Coast:

• Mid-crop production is facing difficulties due to delayed rainfall, negatively impacting quality and yield.
• Estimated mid-crop output is 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year.
• Processors are rejecting more beans: 5–6% of truckloads now consist of poor-quality beans, up from 1% during the main crop.
• Exports from Oct 1 to May 11 reached 1.56 million MT, an 11.4% increase YoY — but growth has slowed compared to the 35% pace observed earlier.
• The decline in both quality and output has supported the recent rise in global cocoa prices.

Ghana:

• COCOBOD revised the 2024/25 harvest forecast to 617,500 MT, down 5% from the previous estimate.
• Ongoing production issues add to price volatility, especially as Ghana remains the world’s second-largest cocoa producer.

🌍 Global Supply Trends and Deficit

• The global cocoa deficit for the 2023/24 season is projected at 441,000 MT, the largest in over six decades.
• Global cocoa production fell 13.1% YoY to 4.38 million MT.
• These factors are keeping upward pressure on prices, despite some regional improvements.

📈 Contrasts in Nigeria and Demand Signals

Nigeria:

• Cocoa exports rose 24% YoY to 27,564 MT, injecting a bearish counterweight into the market.

Demand Outlook:

• Cocoa grindings in North America, Europe, and Asia have not declined as much as expected, suggesting resilient consumer demand despite price increases and supply concerns.

📦 Trade & Corporate Reaction

• Companies like Barry Callebaut and Hershey Co. have revised financial forecasts downward, citing concerns over tariffs and potential weakening of consumer demand.

🔮 Looking Ahead: Surplus or Stabilisation?

• The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasts a shift to a 142,000 MT global surplus in the next cycle, ending four years of deficits.
• A 7.8% increase in production is projected, bringing global output to 4.84 million MT.
• However, the stocks-to-grindings ratio remains historically low at 27, raising continued concerns about long-term supply stability.

🌐 Market Outlook Summary

• A complex global picture is emerging:
  • Supply reductions in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to dominate.
  • Nigeria's export rebound provides some market balance.
  • Demand remains surprisingly firm.
  • The risk of consumer price resistance and policy-driven shifts (e.g., tariffs) looms.

Together, these dynamics shape a volatile yet opportunity-rich environment for cocoa traders and buyers.

📢 For More Insights:

Visit CropGPT for:

• 20 years of crop and weather data
• Field-level disease tracking
• Cocoa price forecasts
• Satellite and ground survey comparisons
• Full earnings call transcripts and analysis

This podcast delivers only a selection of key highlights. For in-depth reporting, please explore our detailed dashboards and reports online.