CropGPT - Coffee - Week 21

CropGPT - Coffee

This episode delivers a focused review of the global coffee market for the week ending May 25, 2025, with detailed insights into pricing structures, production forecasts, and international trade developments across Colombia, Brazil, and Vietnam.

• Colombia: On May 26, the National Federation of Coffee Growers introduced a revised pricing guarantee to stabilize farmer income. This mechanism anchors local prices to the New York Stock Exchange's closing quote, adjusted by exchange rates and Colombian quality premiums. On the day of the announcement, the C contract closed at 360.75 USD/lb, with Colombia’s reference price set at COP 932,000 per 125 kg of parchment coffee. Additional price differentiation applies based on quality and region, with severe defects incurring deductions up to COP 88,000. These pricing models are designed to ensure cost recovery while incentivizing quality production.
• Brazil: The USDA projects Brazil’s 2025–26 coffee harvest to rise slightly to 65 million bags, driven by a 7.3% increase in Robusta output. While rainfall deficits in Minas Gerais pose risks, Brazil remains a key market force, supported by an export value projection of BRL 127.88 billion for 2025—BRL 93.05 billion from Arabica and BRL 34.82 billion from Robusta (Coffea conifera). Despite reduced export volumes, tightening supplies may lend some price support in the near term.
• Vietnam: Vietnam anticipates a 6.9% increase in 2025–26 output, reaching 31 million bags. This follows a 20% yield drop during the 2023–24 crop year due to drought—its lowest in four years. Despite export reductions, Vietnam maintains its dominant position in the Robusta market. Recovery investments in cultivation aim to stabilize supply and reinforce market presence.
• Global Outlook: The international coffee market remains highly volatile, driven by fluctuating production forecasts, export shifts, climate variability, and trade policy adjustments. Prices for both Arabica and Robusta are influenced by rapid changes in major producing nations. The landscape is defined by a delicate balance between local industry strategies and global supply-demand dynamics.