CropGPT - Wheat - Week 21

CropGPT - Grains

This episode provides a data-driven overview of key developments in the global wheat market for the week ending May 25, 2025, with a focus on trade activity, production forecasts, and pricing signals across major producing and exporting regions.

United States: Weekly wheat export sales reached 882,000 tons, the highest in 13 years. However, negative sales of 13,400 tons were recorded for the upcoming 2024 harvest due to order cancellations. Total exports for the current season stand at 22.3 million tons, with the USDA projecting a slight decline to 21.8 million tons for the next season. Key buyers during the week included the Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, and Mexico—although Mexico also canceled forward orders totaling 36,800 tons.

Russia: The International Grains Council raised Russia’s wheat export forecast to 43.3 million tons for the upcoming marketing year, with harvest output projected at 81.7 million tons. Additionally, Russia removed its recommended minimum export price, potentially altering global pricing structures.

European Union: Wheat export estimates for the new agricultural year have been revised upward to 32 million tons, from a prior estimate of 31.4 million tons, reflecting improved conditions post-drought.

India: Favorable weather and improved seed quality have led to an estimated record wheat production of 117 million tons. Rising domestic stocks are fueling pressure on the government to lift the current export ban on wheat products.

Ukraine: Political discussions are underway regarding export quotas and pricing policies, particularly in relation to EU trade. Wheat exports are forecast to decline by 16.3% this marketing year, despite broader global production gains.

China: Despite stable domestic wheat production, heat stress in key regions has increased the country's reliance on imports, particularly from Australia and Canada.

Argentina: The government extended tax breaks for wheat and barley exports through March of the following year. Similar concessions have not been extended to other crops.

Global Outlook: Overall wheat production is expected to rise, largely driven by recovery in EU yields. However, ending stocks are projected to grow only marginally, as increased global trade is expected to absorb much of the new supply.