CropGPT - Canola - Week 22

CropGPT - Oils

This week’s podcast provides a structured overview of the global canola and rapeseed markets, analyzing key developments in production, policy, processing trends, and trade fundamentals.

• Canada: The canola market remains sensitive to weather volatility in the Prairie region. Dry conditions have recently driven futures higher, though a forecast for significant rainfall in early June introduces price uncertainty. Over half the crop has been planted, and farmers are closely monitoring weather outcomes. Canada has also added 200,000 tons of capacity in its oilseed crushing sector, reflecting domestic investment despite expectations of a 1.77 million-ton decline in global canola stockpiles.
• United States: The outlook is shaped by potential changes to the 45Z biofuel tax credit. While some anticipate its removal due to budgetary constraints under the Trump administration, others argue for its continuation, citing strong farmer support. The outcome of this policy decision could significantly affect U.S. canola prices and market direction.
• European Union: Rapeseed processing is projected to fall to 24.45 million tons, a decline of over 1 million tons year-over-year. Lower raw material availability and stronger competition are key contributing factors. The EU is part of a broader global trend of declining canola production.
• China, Canada, and India: These countries have recorded notable year-on-year increases in oilseed crushing volumes—China by 700,000 tons, Canada by 200,000 tons, and India by 100,000 tons. This reflects growing processing demand even as raw production trends diverge across regions.
• Global Outlook: While global canola and rapeseed processing is expected to rise to 77.2 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year, total production is projected to decline. Lower harvests are anticipated in India, the EU, Ukraine, and Australia. As a result, global stockpiles are forecasted to hit a three-year low, underscoring increased market tightness and price risk.