CropGPT - Canola - Week 25

CropGPT - Oils

Episode Summary: Global Canola Market Weekly – June 22, 2025

• This week’s episode provides a comprehensive overview of the global canola and rapeseed market, focusing on production downgrades, regional challenges, and global supply implications for the 2025–2026 season.
• In Australia, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has revised its canola production forecast downward. Total planted area has contracted to just under 3.4 million hectares, with production now expected to fall to approximately 5.7 million tons. This marks a decline of 400,000 tons from the previous season and significantly lowers export potential. Exports are projected to drop to 4.6 million tons, down 200,000 tons from the current season and 1.4 million tons below the 2023–2024 marketing year. The primary cause of this contraction is ongoing drought, which has reduced soil moisture and adversely impacted seeding and yields.
• Notably, ABARES' forecast is more conservative than estimates from other institutions. The International Grains Council anticipates 6 million tons of production, while the USDA projects 6.15 million tons.
• India is also reporting reduced rapeseed output, with estimates now at 10.9 million tons. The European Union’s harvest is projected at 16.93 million tons, continuing a downward trend. Ukraine’s production is similarly expected to decline to 3.73 million tons. These reductions contribute to a broader global contraction in rapeseed supply.
• Despite falling output, rapeseed processing is projected to rise in the current season. Nevertheless, the overall global production forecast has been revised down to 75.52 million tons, a sharp drop from the previous year’s 80 million tons. This shortfall reflects lower production across key regions including Australia, India, the EU, and Ukraine, highlighting systemic pressures in the international canola market.