US Ag Economy - Jobs Up. Costs Down. Corn Exports Up

CropGPT - Podcast for Commodities

This week on CropGPT, we dive into the data shaping the US ag economy and outlook for the 2025/26 season.

Labour Market Snapshot

• Farm labour demand is rising: Hired workers by U.S. farm operators increased 3% in both January and April 2025 vs. the same weeks in 2024.
• Wage growth holds steady:
  • All hired workers: $19.52/hr (+3% YoY)
  • Field workers: $18.58/hr (+2%)
  • Livestock workers: $18.15/hr (+4%)
• Average hours worked also ticked up to 40.8 hours/week in April.

Inflation & Input Price Watch

• CPI (April 2025): +0.2% MoM; 2.3% YoY – lowest 12-month rise since Feb 2021
• Food-at-home prices: -0.4% MoM
• Energy index: +0.7% MoM
• PPI (Producer Prices): -0.5% overall in April
  • Services down 0.7%
  • Goods unchanged
  • Notably: Egg prices fell 39.4%

Crop Outlook: 2025/26 Projections

• Wheat:
  • U.S. production: 1.921B bushels (-3% YoY)
  • Price: $5.30/bu (-$0.20 YoY)
  • Global record output: 808.5M tons
• Corn:
  • U.S. crop: 15.8B bushels (+6%)
  • Highest planted area in over a decade (95.3M acres)
  • Price: $4.20/bu (-$0.15)
  • Global output: 1.265B metric tons
• Rice:
  • U.S. production down 1%, but imports at record 49.2M cwt
  • Price: $13.20/cwt (down from $15.20)
• Soybeans:
  • Lower U.S. supplies and exports, but higher crush
  • Price: $10.25/bu (up from $9.95)
  • Global oilseed production: +2%

Livestock, Poultry & Dairy

• Beef: Production down in 2026 due to tight cattle supply and Mexican import halt
• Pork: Production up on stronger hog inventory
• Poultry: Broiler and turkey output forecast higher
• Eggs: Output rebounds, prices expected to drop
• Dairy: Milk production to rise, prices to ease
  • All-milk price forecast: $21.15/cwt

Global Trade Pressure

• WTO forecasts -0.2% contraction in global goods trade for 2025
• U.S.-China tensions escalate: New tariffs on both sides impacting ag goods
• EU on pause: 90-day suspension on retaliatory ag tariffs amid U.S. talks
• Farm groups warn: Rising tariffs = costlier inputs + weaker U.S. export position
• WTO agriculture negotiations resume ahead of March 2026 ministerial