CropGPT - Sugar - Week 26

CropGPT - Sugar

This episode presents a global overview of the sugar market for the week of June 29, 2025, focusing on climate disruptions, production shifts, and trade developments across major producing regions.

• Brazil, the world’s leading sugar producer, is encountering severe production challenges due to persistent drought and high temperatures in key states such as Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Alagoas. Forecasts from Unica and Kanab project year-on-year declines of 11 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. A stronger Brazilian real is also dampening export competitiveness, raising concerns over the country’s future contribution to global supply.
• In contrast, India is poised for a significant increase in sugar output, projected at 35.3 million metric tons—a 25 percent rise from the previous year. This growth is attributed to favorable monsoon conditions and expanded cultivation. However, policy mismanagement and delayed payments to farmers in Punjab threaten sector liquidity and long-term stability. Weather variability continues to pose risks, particularly with excessive rainfall and cool temperatures in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
• Thailand reports a moderate production increase of 2 percent, supported by favorable conditions in regions like Kam Phe Ng Phet and Udan Thani, though these also raise crop risk. The United States sees a decline in sugar supply, driven by reduced beet yields and lower output in Florida. Mexico maintains stable production at just over 5 million metric tons, with steady trade relations with the US, despite a slight dip in export volumes.
• Mozambique’s sugar exports have surged by 50 percent year on year, bolstered by infrastructure investments and recovery initiatives following recent cyclones. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s imposition of tariffs on Thai sugar imports could shift regional trade dynamics.
• In Europe, Ukraine benefits from an expanded EU quota through August 2025, enabling enhanced market access for 15 firms. Weather patterns in Karnataka, Bihar, Parana, and Goias remain mixed and require close observation for their potential impact on crop development.
• Overall, the global sugar market is under pressure from climatic extremes, economic policy shifts, and evolving trade landscapes. Developments in countries like Brazil, India, and the United States are critical to the outlook for pricing and supply trends in the months ahead.