Who's Gonna Show Up in Istanbul? Ukraine Russia Peace Talks Mystery

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

• President Trump was asked whether he would attend potential peace talks in Istanbul regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. He said he might go if he believes a settlement is possible, implying that his presence could influence the outcome. He also expressed skepticism about whether Vladimir Putin would attend if he doesn't.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky initially said he would go to Istanbul and expected Putin to attend. However, his office later downgraded expectations, stating the meeting would likely be at a lower, technical level (e.g., deputy foreign ministers), not involving top leaders.
• Putin, while not confirming attendance, proposed direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. His move is seen as a strategic bluff-call to the West’s ceasefire demands.

Key Takeaways from Analyst Andrei Martyanov:

• Zelensky’s Walkback: The shift from bold declarations to lower-level talks signals Ukraine was bluffing and had to adjust when Russia called it.
• Western Role: The recent diplomatic push (from leaders in France, the UK, and Poland) for a ceasefire is viewed by Martyanov as performative and unrealistic, given the military situation.
• Russia’s Strategy: The Kremlin prefers not to negotiate with Zelensky, viewing him as a figurehead. They insist on recognizing “realities on the ground,” meaning Russia's military control in eastern Ukraine must be a starting point for any settlement.
• Military Situation: According to Russian sources, Ukraine is suffering high daily casualties (~1,400 KIA). Russia claims low losses due to superior training, technology, and strategy. Russian forces are reportedly using "operational cauldrons" to encircle and pressure Ukrainian forces.

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