Ukraine Minerals Deal Done... What About Peace? Patrik Baab & Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

The discussion centers on the complex state of U.S. and European involvement in efforts to end the war in Ukraine, with particular focus on the Trump administration's peace proposal and shifting dynamics among key figures. Despite efforts to broker peace, including a ceasefire plan and negotiations with Ukraine and European partners, the gap between Russian and Ukrainian positions remains vast.

Key developments include:

Conflicting signals from U.S. leadership: Marco Rubio suggested the U.S. might walk away from talks, while General Keith Kellogg expressed optimism, citing a proposed 30-day comprehensive ceasefire.

The Trump administration's seven-point plan includes keeping Crimea and occupied Donbas regions effectively Russian, keeping Ukraine out of NATO, and halting U.S. support—measures seen as heavily favoring Moscow.

Russia’s demands, per Foreign Minister Lavrov, include formal recognition of annexed territories, demilitarization of Ukraine, lifting sanctions, and ending arrest warrants—all of which are unacceptable to Ukraine and the West.

Both sides of the conflict have hardliners pushing to prolong the war: Ukrainian right-wing factions and Russian separatists, making peace talks difficult.

European divisions are highlighted, with fears that some in Europe prefer the war to continue until a more favorable U.S. administration returns.

Germany is criticized for stationing troops in Lithuania, which the speaker calls illegal and provocative, potentially escalating tensions further with Russia.

Finally, the overarching narrative is that peace is elusive, and any agreement will be extremely difficult and time-consuming, possibly more so than the Vietnam War peace process.

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