Francesca Rudkin: Let China and the US sort it out

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Sometimes being the grown up in the room is deeply unfulfilling, pragmatic, sensible.

Considering consequences, taking a long-term view, they're all good, admirable words, and we should take some solace in them.

But sometimes I think we'd rather just throw a plate at the wall.

And so, it is. Was the government's response yesterday to the Trump tariffs essentially to roll over and take it understandable? Sure. Sensible. Yep, frustrating. Very.

The government confirmed we're not in the queue to negotiate a trade deal with President Trump's administration, nor are we interested in taking legal action over it, and the tariff hit will come after exporters had an excellent March.

It's a shame the party music has hit a bum-note, we want the growth. We want good export news, but without the dark tariff cloud lingering in the distance.

As Trade Minister Todd McClay said yesterday, we probably couldn't negotiate between below the current 10% rate and the legal process would be long winded and would probably go nowhere.

I'm presuming, like the majority of us who aren't diplomats and haven't been in a room negotiating a trade deal, this is a well-considered plan.

One based on experience and insider information, but perhaps also because making a fuss could have unintended consequences and result in even higher tariffs.

It also makes sense to keep our head down until our two biggest trading partners, China and US, have sorted out their own tiff.

We need to ensure both are feeling valued by us and not be seen to take sides as we focus on growing our trademark.

Will the plate throwers get sensible? Trump stated during a White House news conference that the final tariff rate with China would come down substantially from the current 145%.

He said the US would be very nice to China and not play hardball.

Trump's remarks towards China come on the same day the IMF released a new report showing the United States faces the biggest downgrade among advanced countries due to the increase in tariffs and the uncertainty they've caused.

The IMF predicts the US economy will grow 1.8% this year, down from the estimated 2.7%.And there's a 40% chance of recession.

So, is this a case of Trump blinking in a first sign of some steps towards stabilizing global trade? Is it a move by Trump to calm the nerves?

The markets responded well to both Trump's tariff call on China and his remarks. He has no intention of firing the Federal Reserve chair.

I don't think anyone knows what's to come next or how Trump will respond to Chinese social media hashtags such as Trump admitted defeat, but I much prefer the adult Trump rather than the one throwing plates.

In the meantime, New Zealand shall remain patient and diplomatic, settle in and see what change may occur again. Before the 90-day pause is up.

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