The Middle Class Myth, China's Future, And What Really Happened In 1971 "Econ 102" With Noah Smith And Erik Torenberg podcast

1:15:56

This week, we're republishing a conversation Noah Smith and Matt Yglesias hosted live on Substack this past Monday. They revisit a wide-ranging conversation on the transformative role of electric motors, batteries, and industrial policy in a politically polarized era, touching on the history of energy, global economic competition, AI regulation, the Inflation Reduction Act, Democratic strategy, and the need to redefine America’s identity amid demographic shifts. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠ AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @mattyglesias @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Slow Boring: https://www.slowboring.com/podcast – TAKEAWAYS: America's Strategic Blindness : The US had momentum with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which Noah calls "great industrial policy" that was working. However, because it was framed primarily as climate policy rather than technological/economic competition, Republicans killed it for culture war reasons, failing to understand its strategic importance. The Climate Framing Problem : Matt was prescient in warning that framing industrial policy purely through climate would create Republican backlash. Noah admits Matt was right - while climate messaging helped pass the IRA initially, it made the policies vulnerable to being seen as "just some climate thing" rather than crucial economic policy. The Obama Era Split : They trace how the 2000s gave their generation the "peace and love" progressive agenda (gay marriage, ending Iraq War), while the 2010s brought the "angry leftist" phase (riots, racial grievance politics) - unlike boomers who got both simultaneously. Missing the Bush Playbook : During Bush's cascading failures (Iraq, Katrina, financial crisis), Democrats effectively built a broad coalition and defined clear opposition. Today, despite Trump's obvious failures (tariffs, debt, vaccine skepticism), Democrats aren't capitalizing similarly. Narrow Target Strategy : Like successful campaigns in Australia, Democrats need to edit down their message to core critiques of Republican governance rather than trying to advance every progressive priority simultaneously. Big Tent Revival : The party succeeded in 2006-2008 by recruiting diverse candidates and standing behind pro-gun, even some pro-life Democrats to clarify what the core message was versus peripheral issues.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
India-Pakistan, Building Back Military Power, and Immigration 1:00:47

12 days ago1:00:47

1:00:47

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg examine global conflicts—especially India-Pakistan tensions—the U.S. military and industrial strategy amid rising threats from China, and the implications of AI and electrification, emphasizing the need for smarter immigration and industrial policies to maintain America's technological and geopolitical edge. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠ AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠ – TAKEAWAYS: India-Pakistan Conflict Analysis: Noah explains the territorial dispute over Kashmir dating back to the 1947 partition, with both countries claiming parts of each other's territory. America's Declining Global Influence: Noah argues we're seeing the "crumbling of Pax Americana" - reduced American deterrent effect allowing conflicts to escalate further. Critical Defense Industrial Base Concerns: America cannot match China's manufacturing capacity for military equipment, particularly missiles and drones. Economic Analysis - The Great Wage Stagnation: Wages stagnated for about 20 years, then resumed growth in the 1990s. Technology Transformation - The Electric Future: Battery and motor technology improvements are enabling electricity to replace combustion in cars, drones, appliances, and military equipment.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
The Middle Class Myth, China's Future, and What Really Happened in 1971 53:46

20 days ago53:46

53:46

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg debunk myths about the American middle class and globalization, analyze historical data on wage stagnation and trade, assess China’s technological rise, and discuss U.S. economic resilience and policy responses to protectionism. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠ AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/globalization-did-not-hollow-out Noahpinion: ⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠ – TAKEAWAYS: Debunking the Middle Class Hollowing Myth: Noah challenges the common narrative that trade and globalization hollowed out America's middle class. Manufacturing and Economic Shifts: Noah explains that while manufacturing employment did decline significantly (about 3 million jobs in the 2000s), this didn't correspond with overall middle class decline. The China Shock Reality: The "5% truth" in the middle class hollowing narrative relates to what economists call the "China Shock" - a period in the 2000s when Chinese imports surged rapidly. America's Globalization Status: Contrary to popular belief, America has never been highly globalized compared to other countries. Import penetration (imports relative to GDP) is much lower than in countries like China, France or Germany. Energy Crisis Impact: Noah suggests the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 had a more significant impact on American manufacturing than trade policies. Sino-Futurism and China's Future: They discuss "Sino-futurism" - the idea that China represents the technological future. Noah argues this perspective is overblown, noting issues with China's rapid infrastructure development (like the durability of construction), urban planning problems, and the cyclical nature of technological leadership.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
You Can't Tariff Your Way to Greatness 59:42

5 weeks ago59:42

59:42

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore how nostalgia influences politics and economic policy in the US and China, comparing their consumer cultures, industrial strategies, and the complex effects of tariffs on domestic economies and global relations. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg⁠ Apple: ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165⁠ – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠ AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠https://adquick.com/⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: If you think Americans are mad now, just wait a few months: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/if-you-think-americans-are-mad-now Noahpinion: ⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠ – TAKEAWAYS: Nostalgia in Politics: They discussed the role of nostalgia in politics, both in the US and China. Cultural Evolution: US and China: Noah argues China and America are more culturally similar than America and Germany due to both having replaced ancestral cultures with mass consumerism. Tariffs and Economic Impact: The conversation analyzes Trump's tariff policies and their economic consequences. US-China-Europe Relations: Europe may increasingly partner with China economically as US relations deteriorate. Economic Consequences of Trade Policy: Noah argues tariffs don't reindustrialize a country but actually deindustrialize it.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
The Deindustrialization Paradox 43:11

6 weeks ago43:11

43:11

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore topics ranging from the futuristic themes of Black Mirror and the societal impact of technology to a critical analysis of Trump’s de-industrializing tariff policies versus Biden’s growth-focused subsidies, while also examining libertarianism’s influence on American politics and the cultural shifts it may entail. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165 – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Worst-case scenarios and endgames for the Trump economy: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/worst-case-scenarios-and-endgames In which I review almost every episode of Black Mirror: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/in-which-i-review-almost-every-episode Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – TAKEAWAYS: Trump Administration Policies Discussion: Noah contrasts Trump's first term (pre-2019) with his expectations for the current term. Biden Administration's Industrial Policy Approach: Noah highlights the different approach under Biden: adding support rather than disrupting existing systems. Political and Economic Commentary: There's a discussion about Oren Cass (identified as a "conservative econ blogger" with a law degree) and his positions on industrial policy and tariffs. Social Media's Impact on American Society: Noah presents a theory that America was "uniquely vulnerable" to social media's effects due to its geographical and ideological diversity. Personal and Cultural Notes: The beginning features a discussion about the TV show "Black Mirror" and its exploration of technology implications.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

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The Bond Market Rules Everything 56:32

7 weeks ago56:32

56:32

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the Trump administration’s trade policies, their impact on U.S. manufacturing and investment, discussing strategies to counter China’s influence through multi-country trade blocs and industrial policy, and examining currency dynamics, economic default risks, and the complexities of global trade. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165 – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – TAKEAWAYS: Trade Policies: Noah describes the current administration's trade policies, particularly tariffs, as chaotic and poorly planned, comparing it to a "clown car" approach. Economic Impacts of Recent Trade Policies: Tariffs and trade uncertainty are hurting the economy by creating business uncertainty that discourages investment, disrupting supply chains for manufacturers reliant on imported components, and driving capital flight that raises borrowing costs through the selling of U.S. treasuries. Why Exports Matter: Noah emphasizes that exports (approximately $2.1 trillion worth) are crucial to the US economy. On Currency Strength: Noah explains that a strong dollar has both advantages (increased purchasing power) and disadvantages (makes exports less competitive). China Containment Strategy: Noah proposes an effective China containment strategy focused on creating a zero-tariff trade bloc among allied nations, building complete supply chains across friendly countries, targeting China with value-added tariffs rather than just final assembly tariffs, investing in industrial policy to strengthen key industries, and applying export controls strategically.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
Tariff Mayhem and Capital Flight 57:44

7 weeks ago57:44

57:44

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze the global repercussions of Trump’s broad tariff policies, critique misconceptions about trade deficits, and explore the economic fallout and potential policy responses. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165 – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ All the arguments for Trumps Tariffs are wrong and bad: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-for-tariffs-are This is called Capital Flight: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/this-is-called-capital-flight – TAKEAWAYS: Tariff Policy Analysis: They discuss the implementation of widespread tariffs, particularly focusing on how the administration set tariff rates without sound economic methodology, possibly using AI to generate justifications. Trade Deficit Misconception: Noah explains that trade deficits are often misunderstood - they're essentially loans where a country buys goods and provides IOUs (bonds) in return, not necessarily harmful to an economy. Manufacturing Impact: They argue that tariffs may actually harm domestic manufacturing by making imported components, machinery, and raw materials more expensive, potentially leading to de-industrialization rather than re-industrialization. International Relations : The discussion covers how trading partners are responding, with China imposing reciprocal high tariffs, while noting that many countries will likely seek alternative export markets rather than capitulate to demands. Long-term Economic Outlook : The discussion paints a concerning picture of potential rising unemployment, continued market volatility, and possible inflation depending on which economic forces (panic or inefficiency) prove stronger.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
The New Left vs The New Right 1:09:10

9 weeks ago1:09:10

1:09:10

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore the rise of the 'abundance' ideology among Democrats, assess Obama's economic legacy, and analyze the New Right's evolving influence, offering a broad perspective on shifting political and economic discourse. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: Tools and Weapons with Brad Smith Join Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith as he explores tech's impact on society with Bill Gates and Satya Nadella sharing untold stories and insights on Microsoft's AI-fueled future. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4bYASdhkHwovdSmU4YAjYg Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tools-and-weapons-with-brad-smith/id1632459165 – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Cory McArthur aka Irish Lotus: https://soundcloud.com/cory-mcarthur-879994262/irish-lotus – TAKEAWAYS: "Abundance" as a Political Concept: Abundance represents national unity and a "we're all in this together" approach, focusing on making things better for all Americans rather than pitting groups against each other. Economic Analysis: Demand vs. Supply Constraints: They discuss how the 2008 financial crisis created an "aggregate demand shock" where everyone wanted to hold cash rather than spend. National Debt Discussion: They discuss how US debt grew from 60% to 100% of GDP during Obama's administration. They also mention AI could potentially help by increasing productivity growth. "The New Right" Ideology: Noah characterizes the "new right" as centered around defending "Western civilization" in a more narrow sense than previous definitions. Social Media's Impact on Politics: Noah argues that small, vocal minorities on social media have outsized influence on institutions.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

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Abundance Debate, Sex Politics, and Left vs Right Economic Populism 1:01:10

10 weeks ago1:01:10

1:01:10

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Tornberg explore Japan’s economic and societal structure—covering urban zoning, housing policy, and government efficiency—before critiquing Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson, advocating for balanced market dynamics and governance, and discussing broader socio-political themes like right-wing ideologies, gender in the workforce, and economic populism. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Abundance: https://www.amazon.com/Abundance-Progress-Takes-Ezra-Klein/dp/1668023482 I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – TAKEAWAYS: Japan's Urban Development Success: Japan's efficient housing development stems from streamlined approvals, standardized zoning, administrative processes, and mixed-use zoning. Abundance Agenda Discussion: Noah analyzed Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson's "Abundance" book, which promotes a results-oriented progressive approach focused on building things. Government Structure and Process: Successful governance needs both market mechanisms and effective bureaucracy. Political Factions and Resistance: Discussion of different progressive factions (Warren vs. Bernie supporters). The "Doge" Discussion: References to "Doge" (likely Project 2025) as an ideological effort to reduce bureaucracy.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

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How Europe, America and China are Repositioning 54:08

11 weeks ago54:08

54:08

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump’s policies, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending’s effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith’s upcoming book, Weeb Economy, and Noah's trip to Japan. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/ I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – TAKEAWAYS: U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump’s strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe. China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work. AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI’s impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic. Japan’s Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen. AI’s Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

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Making Sense of America's Tariff Chaos 1:04:18

12 weeks ago1:04:18

1:04:18

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss the chaos caused by Trump's trade policies, tariffs' effects on the U.S. economy, potential recession risks, economic isolationism, policy uncertainty, investment impacts, and the broader cultural and societal shifts in America, including the decline of Christianity, the rise of wokeness, and community disintegration. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – TAKEAWAYS: Economic Impact of Trump's Tariffs: Noah argues that Trump's tariffs (especially on Canada and Mexico) are damaging the US economy more severely than the China tariffs from his first term. Why Tariffs Are Harmful: Factors such as reduced market scale for American companies, loss of specialization benefits, technological isolation ("Galapagos Syndrome"), policy uncertainty hindering business investment, and the negative impact on exports due to exchange rate effects and retaliatory tariffs are all contributing challenges. Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Debate about whether tariffs will cause stagflation or a demand shock that lowers inflation. Cultural and Social Commentary: Discussion of Ennis Lyons' argument about "the return of the strong gods" (nationalism, family, tradition, religion). Innovation and National Success: Discussion about Japan's impressive innovation record (extensive list of Japanese inventions)…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
AI, Stargate, & Surveillance with Auron McIntyre and Lev Polyakov 39:39

13 weeks ago39:39

39:39

In this episode, Noah Smith recently went on the Break the Rules podcast, hosted by Lev Polyakov, for a debate with Auron MacIntyre. They discuss the societal implications of AI development, focusing on Trump's relationships with tech leaders, AI systems like Stargate, surveillance, economic productivity, regulatory measures, geopolitical competition, and immigrant labor's role in technological advancements. – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️Break The Rules - Hosted by Lev Polyakov, Break The Rules brings different online & offline circles together at a time of social atomization in order to break echo-chambers. Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/break-the-rules/id1543233584 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yovF9Vo8n1fF1DGlMuWBh YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@breakth3rules/ – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @LevPo @AuronMacintyre @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Trump Liberty or Technocracy? Auron Macintyre & Noah Smith: https://www.youtube.com/live/pH_nuk94FQk?si=D-5qvd74cpBSjwfm The Total State: How Liberal Democracies Become Tyrannies: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1684515580ref_=cm_sw_r_cp_ud_dp_5Q231Q8CQ65W8Z0PTQ3H Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ – TAKEAWAYS: AI Development and Trump Administration: The discussion examines Donald Trump's meetings with tech leaders and the "Stargate" AI system, raising questions about whether the administration will embrace technocratic control systems or maintain populist principles. Labor Market Effects: Noah points out that despite previous AI advances, we've seen wage increases for lower-skilled workers and movement toward higher-skilled jobs, challenging assumptions about AI's negative impact on employment. Oligarchic Influences: Auron describes the current political landscape as an "age of oligarchy" where different factions of wealthy interests compete for influence, with Trump balancing populist rhetoric against tech billionaire support. Civilization Complexity Theory: Auron references Joseph Tainter's theory on how increasing complexity with diminishing returns contributes to civilizational collapse, suggesting AI may be an attempt to escape these human limitations. Immigration Comparisons: Noah argues that despite current debates about immigration, America faces fewer ethnic tensions than 100 years ago, providing historical perspective on current social challenges.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

1
Richard Hanania & Noah Smith: Making Sense of Trump, Elon, and Global Politics 1:17:17

14 weeks ago1:17:17

1:17:17

This week, we're sharing Richard Hanania and Noah Smith’s live conversation from Feb 6th, recorded for their Substack audiences. This is the first time the two writers have met, and in this conversation they covered fundamental differences between the American right and left movements. They also discuss Elon Musk's positioning as the future Republican kingmaker and Noah's theory that Musk envisions coordinating a global "anti-woke alliance" with Putin and Xi. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @RichardHanania @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Richard Hanania’s Newsletter: https://www.richardhanania.com/ Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Too many Americans still fear the future: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/too-many-americans-still-fear-the The chaos has arrived: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-chaos-has-arrived Trump's Executive Branch Revolution: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/trumps-executive-branch-revolution Trump impose large tariffs in first year?: https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first?play=false – TAKEAWAYS: Richard notes Trump's first administration achieved success with Middle East normalization agreements. Noah compares Ukraine war to Finland's Winter War - Ukraine may lose territory but maintain independence. Richard questions whether taking NATO membership off the table could have prevented the Ukraine conflict. Right-wing politics revolves around personal loyalty while left-wing politics centers on ideological purity. Elon Musk is positioning himself as the kingmaker for the post-Trump Republican party. Richard supports technological progress, believing future generations should benefit from AI and genetic engineering. Noah argues societies that resist technological progress inevitably get left behind in global competition. Richard expresses skepticism about Democrats' ability to reform, citing Obama's failed education reform efforts. Noah predicts Democrats won't move away from "institutional wokeness" until the 2030s.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

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Elon calls Noah a Liar, Inflation, and Changes Democrats Need to Make 1:02:26

14 weeks ago1:02:26

1:02:26

This week Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg discuss three key areas where Democrats need to rethink their strategy: embracing anti-inflation policies similar to the Clinton era, focusing on genuine threats to democracy rather than partisan hobby horses, and abandoning progressive language policing that alienates voters. Noah also talks about how Elon Musk has transformed Republican effectiveness by bringing entrepreneurial talent to politics, arguing that Democrats need to stop alienating tech entrepreneurs and instead recruit similar talent to their side. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED PODCAST: 🎙️ Second Opinion Join Christina Farr, Ash Zenooz and Luba Greenwood as they bring influential entrepreneurs, experts and investors into the ring for candid conversations at the frontlines of healthcare and digital health every week. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0A8NwQE976s32zdBbZw6bv Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/second-opinion-with-christina-farr-ash-zenooz-md-luba/id1759267211 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SecondOpinionwithChristinaFarr – TAKEAWAYS: Democrats can capitalize on the mistakes of their opponents, particularly regarding economic policies. The perception of inflation is a significant issue for voters, and Democrats need to address it effectively. Defending democracy is crucial, but Democrats must focus on the actual threats rather than long-term issues like gerrymandering. The Democratic Party needs to reassess its progressive ideals and messaging to resonate with a broader audience. Cultural shifts, such as language policing, can alienate potential supporters for the Democratic Party. The entrepreneurial class holds significant power and talent that Democrats should engage with. Democrats need to communicate a patriotic vision of America to counter negative narratives. The trans movement is distinct from other civil rights movements and requires a nuanced approach. A clear and assertive stance on America's founding principles can help Democrats regain credibility. Young people are increasingly forming situationships instead of traditional relationships. The Inflation Reduction Act was more about political maneuvering than actual inflation reduction. Biden's economic policies have effectively reduced inflation through various measures. Democracy is threatened not just by election denial but by the erosion of checks and balances. A new economic paradigm is needed that addresses modern challenges and national security. Deregulation is essential for economic growth and should be prioritized. The bureaucratic model in Japan could offer insights for improving U.S. governance. Elon Musk's approach to government may be influenced by right-wing media rather than policy experts. A pluralistic social media ecosystem is emerging as people seek alternatives to traditional platforms. There is potential for a smarter Democratic party in response to the changing political landscape.…

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

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Europe's Fate, Ukraine & Russia, and the Post-American Era 55:08

15 weeks ago55:08