Blind to Power: The Hidden Investing Risk of Rising Strongmen | Peter Atwater

Excess Returns

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization.

📌 Topics Covered:

Why today’s political leaders are reshaping markets and capitalism

How investors must rethink confidence, control, and certainty

The "beneficiary vs. victim" framework for companies and countries

Implications for capital allocation in a deglobalizing world

Fragility of dominant leadership and geopolitical risk

How social media and sentiment shape investor perception

Where investors are most misaligned with current realities

Confidence mapping for AI, private credit, Chinese equities, and more