False Recession Alarms. Real Risks. | Aahan Menon on What Investors Are Missing

Excess Returns

Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now.

We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you’ve been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking.

Topics discussed include:

• Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycle

• The real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panic

• How the Fed’s rate hikes lost their bite

• What’s changed in the economy’s sensitivity to rates

• Prometheus’ approach to stress testing and forecasting

• How Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategy

• The behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts