The Fiscal Spiral Has No Off Switch | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance

This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield curve's breaking point, and how AI-driven productivity might justify tech valuations. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) Tyler’s Back!

(03:53) China Deal & Tyler’s Framework

(09:56) Inflation & Labor

(11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)

(12:17) US Trade & Debt Reality

(19:58) Generational Repatriation

(22:23) MicroStrategy Monetizing Volatility

(24:02) Inflation & Capital Controls

(27:05) Tax Bill & Deficit Expansion

(28:56) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)

(30:27) Dollar & Bond Market Breaking

(35:32) Stock Flows, Volatility & Sentiment

(38:08) US Equities & AI

(43:14) Asian Currencies

(45:21) New System in Motion

(47:07) Short Bond Trade

(49:34) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.