The Strong Data Is A Mirage | Weekly Roundup

Forward Guidance

This week, we discuss the strong jobs report and why next month is the time to look for weakness, the tariff strategy and how it’s bleeding into economic data, and people missing the forest for the trees in the Trump agenda. We also delve into the Treasury QRA, measuring Treasury market stress and why an intervention right now is a political decision, navigating bear market rallies, and more. Enjoy!

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NMv_qEEEV88_9ZH8epVSdwfpuv8jUgFn/view?usp=sharing

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) NFP & Labor Market

(10:31) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(11:26) Tariffs & Economic Data

(17:38) Tariff Strategy

(19:59) Unpacking the Trump Agenda

(31:21) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ondo)

(32:38) Treasury QRA & Buybacks

(38:18) Treasury Market Stress & Demand

(44:52) Market Structure & Bear Market Rallies

(51:41) Risk Exposure is a Spectrum

(53:47) MSTR Outlook

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.