Why Ukraine May Try to Retake Crimea Next

Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has taken back all of the territory lost since February 2022.
In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch once again talks to Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, who challenges that notion. Sergii makes a compelling case that Ukraine is likely to try to retake Crimea as part of an upcoming new offensive.

Other topics covered in an in-depth conversation about the state of the war:
- Why Ukraine is fighting so hard for Bakhmut despite taking devastating losses there
- Why Kreminna and Svatove are even more important than Bakhmut
- The vital importance of the barely noticed fight at Vulhledar in the South
- Is it possible for Ukrainian forces to cross the Dnipro river
- Why the latest supplies of western Infantry Fighting Vehicles and tanks may not help as much as many think
- How Ukraine is maintaining the Noah's Ark of western weapons donations
- Why Ukraine has not attempted to destroy the North Crimean Canal and the real situation with the water supplies to Crimea
- Why there is only one real general in the Russian military
- Where is Ukraine expecting a new Russian offensive
- Why the stories of Russian forces being unmotivated to fight is largely a myth
- Why Kharkiv remains a key priority for Russia
- Why Ukraine is not worried about a new offensive from Belarus
- and much more

Music: "There beyond the fogs" Ukrainian take on a popular patriotic song from a Russian rock band Lyube, rewritten with lyrics about the explosions in Crimea (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DSAnQrTELQ)