Is Stability in the Middle East Possible?

Global Security Briefing

#Politics #News #Government #Security #Geopolitics #Royal United Services Institute

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about a year ago 54:52

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Following the fall of the Assad regime, what comes next for Syria and the future of the region?

The Middle East is experiencing significant challenges and transitions as 2024 draws to a close. The war between Israel and Hamas continues to dominate regional dynamics, with Gaza suffering a severe humanitarian crisis. Efforts towards a ceasefire are ongoing, but questions about Gaza's reconstruction and long-term governance remain unresolved. Additionally, in a sudden and dramatic turn of events, all eyes are now on Syria, where a lightning rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (or HTS) brought about the rapid fall of the brutal Assad dictatorship that has ruled Syria for over five decades. The fall of the Assad regime marks a significant turning point for the region and raises many critical questions and challenges for the country's future.

Host Neil Melvin is joined by Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, and Michael Stephens, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, to ask: what would a future Syrian state look like? Are we any closer to a ceasefire deal in Gaza that could also see Israeli hostages being released? And how can we expect Iran to respond to the fall of its closest ally in the Middle East?

113 episodes

Global Security Briefing

Is Stability in the Middle East Possible?

Global Security Briefing

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published about a year ago

MP3•Episode home

Following the fall of the Assad regime, what comes next for Syria and the future of the region?

113 episodes

#Politics #News #Government #Security #Geopolitics #Royal United Services Institute

All episodes

Global Security Briefing

1
Does the Trump Administration Have an Indo-Pacific Security Strategy? 48:26

6 days ago48:26

48:26

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific are testing US power and alliances. What does this mean for regional strategy and for the UK? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr. Kori Schake, senior fellow and the director of foreign and defence policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, senior research fellow, RUSI, to examine whether the Trump administration has a coherent Indo-Pacific strategy or is simply reacting to China's growing influence. As Washington debates its role in Asia amid military overstretch, defence industrial challenges, and diverging views on alliance priorities, the UK faces key questions about its own Indo-Pacific tilt. With British carriers deploying to the region and AUKUS under scrutiny, this episode explores whether the US has the will and means to lead, how regional actors are responding, and what all this means for UK strategy in an era of intensifying great power competition.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Have the Recent Conflicts Transformed the Middle East? 55:49

20 days ago55:49

55:49

Open warfare has crossed the Middle East, and in its wake came an erosion of the norms of statesmanship and the power of international law to avert conflict. What are the implications for deterrence, diplomacy, and the future of UK, US, and regional strategy? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI experts Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens to assess whether the Middle East is on the cusp of fundamental transformation or simply entering another volatile chapter. With the region rocked by Hamas' October 2023 attacks, a devastating war in Gaza, direct military strikes between Iran and Israel, and renewed US intervention, long-held assumptions about deterrence, regional power balances, and the limits of escalation have been upended. As Prime Minister Netanyahu meets President Trump in Washington, the episode explores how far the region has shifted and whether latest confrontations mark the end of 'grey-zone' conflicts and the emergence of a new order shaped by overt state-to-state warfare. Has Iran's deterrence crumbled? Can Israel claim strategic success? Are Gulf states and the US recalibrating their roles? And what does all this mean for the future of Gaza, the Arab-Israeli process of diplomatic normalisation, and UK foreign policy?…

Global Security Briefing

1
How Should the UK Approach European Security? 48:17

5 weeks ago48:17

48:17

How is the UK's Labour government approaching European security, and how does this compare to the Conservatives? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Richard Whitman to examine how much has changed since Labour came to power. The UK is currently setting a path to navigate an uncertain world in a series of major reviews - the Security and Defence Review has just been published, a new National Security Strategy was release, and a Defence Industry Strategy is due later in the year. But amid the flurry of Whitehall documents, Labour is under pressure to deliver on its promises and, crucially, match the resources to fund a major increase in defence spending. Discussants assess the British government's readiness to find the financial resources that will be necessary to match the political commitments it is making. What should be the UK priorities as European security looks likely to undergo significant changes in the coming decades?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Can Russia-Ukraine Negotiations to End the War Succeed? 40:18

7 weeks ago40:18

40:18

Is there a real near-term prospect of an end of Russia's war against Ukraine? RUSI experts explain four and a half months of the Trump Administration's approach to the war. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Samuel Greene, who teaches Russian politics at King's College and is a senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, and Andriy Zagorodnuyk, Chairman of the Centre for Defence Strategies, Kyiv, who also previously served as Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2019-2020). They examine Trump's approach to the war, which initially seemed to reposition the United States as a broker between Moscow and Kyiv, and expressed itself ready to cede key demands to Russia with the objective of bringing the war to a conclusion Talks have dragged on, and the US President has seemed to grow frustrated with the complexity of the issues and the pace of the negotiations. While initially welcoming Trump's approach to the conflict, Russia has seemed unwilling to genuinely commit, opting instead to prolong the process. The team outlines what will come next and how United States policy towards Russia and Ukraine is likely to develop in response to the Russia-Ukraine war.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Can Illiberal Peace Bring Stability to the Middle East? 48:23

9 weeks ago48:23

48:23

Can Peace Without Democracy Work? RUSI experts discuss the rise of illiberal peacebuilding in the Middle East and what it means for UK foreign policy. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security Dr. Burcu Ozcelik, Dr Claire Smith, Deputy Associate Dean for the Faculty of Social Sciences and the Faculty Director of Postgraduate Research, University of York, and Dr Rana Khalaf, Research Consultant and non-resident fellow at the University of St Andrews, to examine how authoritarian approaches to conflict management are reshaping the post-war landscape in the Middle East. The panel explores the rise of illiberal peace - where stability is pursued through top-down control, elite deals, and the exclusion of dissent. From Syria and Egypt to Libya and Iraq, the episode considers how this model is gaining traction among domestic regimes and international actors alike. The discussion also reflects on the risks of prioritising order over democratic values and asks whether Western interventions have contributed to similar outcomes. Looking ahead, the team assesses what this shift means for the UK's role in a region where peace increasingly comes without democracy.…

Global Security Briefing

1
The Rise of a Fragmented and Contested World 40:05

11 weeks ago40:05

40:05

GSB turns 100: RUSI experts look back on key security shifts and explore what’s next for the UK in a rapidly changing global landscape. In this special 100th episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by the RUSI International Security team to reflect on how global security has evolved since the podcast’s launch in 2021. Recorded live in London, the episode examines a world marked by rising state-based wars, increasing military tensions, and the fragmentation of the post–World War II international order. From the Russia–Ukraine war and instability in the Middle East to the growing rivalry between the US and China in the Indo-Pacific, the panel explores the key trends driving today’s global insecurity. The discussion also considers the rise of influential regional powers and the UK’s search for a post-Brexit role on the world stage. The team also offers insights on the security challenges of the next five years. Can the UK and its allies adapt to an increasingly contested and divided global landscape?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Can Europe Rearm – and Might this be in Time? 59:41

14 weeks ago59:41

59:41

As Europe races to rearm, can it do so fast enough to deter looming threats? We explore this question with Shashank Joshi and Dr. Daniel Fiott. In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, and Dr. Daniel Fiott, Head of the Defence and Statecraft Programme at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy of the Vrije Universiteit in Brussels, to explore whether Europe's defence renaissance can deliver on its promises. As Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on and questions grow around America's long-term role in European security, EU states are ramping up defence spending and launching new initiatives, including Readiness 2030 and efforts to create a single market for defence. Can these efforts overcome long-standing industrial fragmentation, political hurdles, and capability gaps in time? And what role will the UK and Ukraine play in this transformation? Can Europe rearm fast enough to secure its future? And what if it can't?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Can Taiwan Resist China’s Campaign of Grey Zone Coercion? 49:52

16 weeks ago49:52

49:52

As China increases its ‘grey zone’ pressure, can Taiwan defend its sovereignty without sparking open conflict? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin speaks with Dr. Philip Shetler-Jones, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security, Sze-Fung Lee an independent researcher specialising in Chinese hybrid warfare, and Dr. Jyun-yi Lee, Associate Research Fellow at Taiwan's Institute for National Defense and Security Research to examine how Taiwan is confronting the growing coercive pressure from China, a pressure which falls just below the threshold of war. Drawing on a new RUSI report , they explore what grey zone tactics are, how Taiwan is responding, and what lessons can be shared between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. With rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, this episode asks: Can grey zone threats be deterred – and how close are we to open conflict? This episode is brought to you as part of our Indo-Pacific Security Programme, under which our research on the grey zone and lawfare receives sponsorship from the Taipei Relations Office in London.…

Global Security Briefing

1
The Future of Transatlantic Security 47:00

18 weeks ago47:00

47:00

How have the initial weeks of President Trump's second term of office impacted the transatlantic relationship, and will it survive his administration? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin speaks with Dr Liana Fix from the Council on Foreign Relations to explore the evolving transatlantic alliance. With growing security challenges, shifting US priorities, and Europe's push for strategic autonomy, they discuss key questions including: How is US policy toward European security changing? Can Europe defend itself without Washington? Is NATO's future at risk? The speakers also examine the impact of nationalism, the war in Ukraine, and great power competition.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Security Trends and the Role of Think Tanks, With Rachel Ellehuus 46:52

20 weeks ago46:52

46:52

How is the global security landscape evolving, and what role can think tanks play in shaping the debate? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin sits down with Rachel Ellehuus, RUSI's new Director-General, to explore the major security and defence challenges facing Europe, the transatlantic alliance and the wider international order, drawing on her extensive experience in NATO, the US Department of Defense, and the UK Ministry of Defence. They also discuss RUSI's role as the world's oldest security and defence think tank, its strategic direction ahead of its bicentenary, and how it can contribute to navigating an increasingly complex global environment. What are the biggest challenges for think tanks today, and how can institutions like RUSI help shape the future of security policy?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Japan’s Defence Industry Revival 40:24

22 weeks ago40:24

40:24

Is Japan’s evolving national security profile altering its role in global security? Prof. Chris Hughes & Hirohito Ogi discuss this strategic shift. Japan is undergoing a major transformation in its defence policy, expanding its industrial base and forging new international partnerships. What are the strategic drivers behind this shift, and how will these impact regional and global security? In this episode of Global Security Briefing, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Associate Fellow Prof. Chris Hughes and Hirohito Ogi, Senior Associate Fellow at the Asia Pacific Initiative, to analyse Japan’s evolving defence posture. They discuss policy changes to enable arms exports, the significance of initiatives like the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), and Japan’s role in strengthening defence cooperation with the UK and other allies. What challenges remain, and how far can Japan go in reshaping its position as a global security actor?…

Global Security Briefing

1
New ‘Great Power’ Competition in the Middle East 50:26

24 weeks ago50:26

50:26

Shifting alliances and global power struggles are redefining the Middle East's future. Neil Melvin, Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens explore who will ultimately hold the power. This episode dives into the evolving power dynamics of the Middle East in the wake of war and regional instability. As global and regional players – from the US and China to Iran, Israel and Russia – compete for influence, host Neil Melvin and his guests, Burcu Ozcelik and Michael Stephens, ask whether Western power is in decline, how regional powers can shape their own future, and what’s next for Gaza.…

Global Security Briefing

1
New Year Special Part Two: The Indo-Pacific and Latin America 48:44

26 weeks ago48:44

48:44

As 2025 gathers pace, we reflect on security challenges from the previous year and look at what to expect in the coming months. What was foreseen and what was unexpected in last year’s global security developments? And how have security events altered the trajectory of various regions? In the second episode of this two-part special, host Neil Melvin is joined by colleagues in RUSI’s International Security team, Philip Shetler-Jones and Carlos Solar, to examine the year that has passed and to look at what’s coming next in the Indo-Pacific and Latin America.…

Global Security Briefing

1
New Year Special Part One: Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East 48:19

28 weeks ago48:19

48:19

At the start of 2025, we reflect on security challenges from the previous year and look at what to expect in the coming months. The past year registered many landmark events in global security. But what was foreseen, and what was unexpected? And how have security events altered the trajectory of various regions? In the first episode of this two-part special, host Neil Melvin is joined by colleagues from RUSI’s International Security team Ed Arnold, Burcu Ozcelik and Callum Fraser to examine the year that has passed and to look at what’s coming next in Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Is Stability in the Middle East Possible? 54:52

32 weeks ago54:52

54:52

Following the fall of the Assad regime, what comes next for Syria and the future of the region? The Middle East is experiencing significant challenges and transitions as 2024 draws to a close. The war between Israel and Hamas continues to dominate regional dynamics, with Gaza suffering a severe humanitarian crisis. Efforts towards a ceasefire are ongoing, but questions about Gaza's reconstruction and long-term governance remain unresolved. Additionally, in a sudden and dramatic turn of events, all eyes are now on Syria, where a lightning rebel offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (or HTS) brought about the rapid fall of the brutal Assad dictatorship that has ruled Syria for over five decades. The fall of the Assad regime marks a significant turning point for the region and raises many critical questions and challenges for the country's future. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow, and Michael Stephens, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, to ask: what would a future Syrian state look like? Are we any closer to a ceasefire deal in Gaza that could also see Israeli hostages being released? And how can we expect Iran to respond to the fall of its closest ally in the Middle East?…

Global Security Briefing

1
The Imminent End of the Ukraine War? 49:11

35 weeks ago49:11

49:11

Following Donald Trump’s election victory, we ask if this could be the beginning of the end of the fighting in Ukraine. President-elect Trump has famously claimed he can end the Ukraine war in a day. While there is skepticism about this claim, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently indicated that Russia’s war in Ukraine will end ‘faster’ when Trump re-enters the White House. But what would a deal to stop the fighting look like, and what will the implications of a ceasefire be for Ukraine, the Euro-Atlantic community and Russia? Host Neil Melvin sits down with Professor Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Director of Mayak Intelligence, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, the Chairman of the Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies think-tank, to answer such questions and more.…

Global Security Briefing

1
North Korea’s Emergence as an International Security Actor 45:40

37 weeks ago45:40

45:40

As Russia turns to Pyongyang for reinforcements against Ukraine, we explore the events that have shaped North Korea as a security actor. Following the stalling of the ‘Six Party’ talks about North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme in 2008, the country attracted little international attention until 2019 and Donald Trump’s ultimately fruitless attempts to unlock the relationship through summit diplomacy. During the Biden administration there have been few initiatives towards North Korea; Washington has focused instead on strengthening the relationship with South Korea and other regional allies. As the war in Ukraine has dragged on, Russia has increasingly turned to North Korea for weapons and, more recently, also troops. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, and Ha Chae Kyoun (CK), former visiting fellow at RUSI under the Korea Foundation project, to discuss the implications of North Korea’s involvement, and how other countries are responding. This episode is brought to you as part of the Korea Programme, sponsored by the Korea Foundation.…

Global Security Briefing

1
A New World Disorder? From the BRICS to the G20 51:56

39 weeks ago51:56

51:56

The world order is being challenged by new organisations and initiatives designed to sideline existing Western-led institutions. The latest summit of the group of states known collectively as the BRICS is a case in point. Originally involving Brazil, Russia, India and China, with South Africa joining later, the group has now expanded to bring in new members, including Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE, with a long waiting list of other potential members building up. Often seen as a ‘talking shop’, the BRICS has been given a new strategic purpose by Russia and China as a mechanism to challenge US-led alliances and global institutions. But the BRICS is not the only international format to emerge in recent years. And Brazil, together with India, has been uncomfortable with China and Russia’s efforts to turn the BRICS into an anti-Western bloc. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Dr Burcu Ozcelik and Callum Fraser from the International Security team at RUSI to discuss what sort of organisation the BRICS is becoming as efforts are made to consolidate its activities and expand its membership. Can a new international order emerge from the current ferment?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Waiting for Escalation: Where is the Middle East Crisis Heading? 54:19

41 weeks ago54:19

54:19

One year on from Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel, we look at the current state of the conflict in the Middle East and its future trajectory. Last week marked the one-year anniversary of the horrific Hamas attacks on 7 October. There are still no indications of how and under what conditions the war will end. To the contrary, all indications are that the region is on the precipice of a wider and deadlier war. The second in our series on the evolving crises in the Middle East, this episode will aim to explore the situation on the ground and the implications for geopolitical and geoeconomic relations inside the region, as well as the Middle East’s relations with external actors. Host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Burcu Ozcelik and RUSI Senior Associate Fellow Michael Stephens to discuss what has changed in the region since Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel on 1 October 2024. How should we interpret Israel’s strategic objectives as it expands its military campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon? What is Israel’s likely long game in Lebanon? And do the US or the UK have any real influence over Israel’s military decision-making and the course of the spiraling conflict?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Can Japan Deliver on its Defence Reforms? 46:56

43 weeks ago46:56

46:56

Two years on, how has Japan progressed with its planned national security reforms, and how is it adapting to regional security challenges? In December 2022, Japan announced plans to almost double its defence budget and acquire a new set of strike capabilities. The context for that decision was a sense of rising danger and a need to be prepared to assume a larger defence burden. The plans progressed under the leadership of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, but he has now been replaced in this post. Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s new prime minister, inherits a set of circumstances at home and abroad that will challenge this defence pivot. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss the original motivation behind these reforms, as well as what progress has been made. What sort of domestic debate is there in Japan on foreign and security policy? And will Japan be able to deliver on its ambitious plans? This episode is sponsored by the Embassy of Japan.…

Global Security Briefing

1
How are the Crises in the Middle East Reshaping the Region? 54:37

44 weeks ago54:37

54:37

As tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, we launch a new mini-series dedicated to understanding the dynamics shaping the region. We are launching a regular new series of episodes of Global Security Briefing designed to foster a better understanding of the current situation in the region, entitled ‘The Middle East in Crisis’, which aims to review and provide analysis on the unfolding political, economic and security dynamics reshaping the region. After months of tensions, including the detonation of electronic communication devices used by Hezbollah across Lebanon and Syria, Israel now appears to be on the verge of an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Almost a year on from the 7 October attacks, de-escalation efforts appear exhausted and violence is broadening. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Burcu Ozcelik and Senior Associate Fellow Michael Stephens to take stock of the current situation and explain the dynamics driving the current multifront crisis.…

Global Security Briefing

1
How Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Changed the War in Russia 55:51

47 weeks ago55:51

55:51

In this edition, we will be returning to Russia’s war against Ukraine as both sides increasingly look towards another winter of fighting. Since the autumn/winter of last year, there have been further swings in the war as Russia launched a long offensive and Ukraine suffered a lack of weapons due to political deadlock in the US Congress and a shortage of manpower. More recently, in a surprise operation, Ukraine has launched a successful incursion into Russia itself – seizing territory in Kursk – and it has continued to inflict damage on Russian naval forces in the Black Sea and developed the ability to attack targets further inside Russia. In August 2024, Russia renewed its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of the winter. It is clear that the war is continuing to evolve, what were red lines are being crossed, and the enormous cost in lives and damage continues to mount. But where does the war stand overall now? More than 30 months into the conflict, is there any sense that one side is closer to winning, and how has Ukraine’s dramatic incursion into Russia’s Kursk region affected the war? This week, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Director of Mayak Intelligence.…

Global Security Briefing

1
How is NATO Approaching China’s Security Challenge? 46:52

49 weeks ago46:52

46:52

This episode of Global Security Briefing explores NATO's interest in China and the Indo-Pacific amid ongoing security challenges in Europe. At last month’s NATO summit in Washington, DC, China was identified as a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war against Ukraine. It was also noted that China ‘continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security’. Many argue that the principal need is for NATO to concentrate on Europe. This is not just because of the Russo-Ukrainian war, but also because the US is focusing on China as its principal adversary, which will likely lead to Washington shifting more of the burden for European security to European allies. The construction of a ‘European pillar of NATO’ that can deter Russia is already a tall order. Is it realistic for Europeans to get involved in security issues on the other side of the world on top of that? And why are Asian countries interested in being linked more closely to NATO? This week, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security, to answer these questions and more. This episode is brought to you as part of a research initiative at RUSI that looks at evolving transatlantic cooperation on China supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Will the Labour Government Seek A New Approach to the Middle East? 52:18

51 weeks ago52:18

52:18

Concluding our series on how the UK’s new Labour government is approaching key foreign policy questions, we turn to the Middle East. It is in the Middle East that Labour’s ‘progressive realist’ foreign policy will be most tested – especially in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Signalling the importance of the Middle East to the new government, Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories just over a week after Labour’s election victory. The UK’s distinct regional profile has faded in recent years as London has approached the Middle East in broad alignment with the US and focused on concluding trade deals rather than pursuing high-level diplomatic engagements. Will the UK under a Labour government seek to carve out a more distinct regional approach and play a more prominent role in the Middle East? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Burcu Ozcelik, RUSI Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security, and Dr Michael Stephens, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, to answer this and more.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Does the New UK Government Need a Fresh China Policy? 45:33

1 year ago45:33

45:33

Current UK China policy is defined by the three main concepts of protecting national interests, aligning with allies and engaging with China on key matters such as climate change where possible. But how are these approaches coordinated and prioritised? The previous UK government was prepared to live with the ambiguity inherent in this approach, arguing that complexity of relations with China demanded a policy which takes into account the divergent and simultaneous trends in UK–China ties. But while in opposition, Foreign Secretary David Lammy articulated his party’s intention of conducting ‘a full audit across Whitehall of our relationship with China so that we can set the direction and a course’. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Associate Fellows Isabel Hilton and Andrew Cainey to discuss how Labour will approach the balance between security, values, economic interests and environmental concerns and the difficult trade-offs inherent in dealing with China.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Can Labour Reset the UK’s Security Relations with Europe? 51:00

1 year ago51:00

51:00

On the heels of a landslide victory, this episode examines the newly elected UK Labour government’s plan to refashion the UK’s security and defence ties with Europe. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his team have identified the forging of a new relationship with the EU as a priority. Security, which was not part of the withdrawal agreement, is seen as a low-hanging fruit in this context, given the UK’s important resources and London’s generally shared interests with the EU. However, since Brexit, much has changed in European security, and the degree to which the EU will be a strategic actor of regional and global significance is uncertain. What should the new government’s priorities be for building the UK’s role in European security? What weight should security and defence ties with the EU have in this set of policies, and what sort of relationship should London look to foster? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Richard Whitman, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent and RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, and Jake Benford, Senior Project Manager for the Europe Programme at the Bertelsmann Stiftung.…

Global Security Briefing

1
NATO at 75 44:40

1 year ago44:40

44:40

In this episode, GSB takes a look at how the 75th Anniversary Summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization aims to shape the future of the Alliance. The summit takes place in Washington, DC, from 9 to 11 July, and is being billed as a celebration of the Alliance, often termed the most successful in history. There will also be attention to NATO’s recent efforts to rebuild its capacity to deter and defend against threats, notably from Russia, but with an eye on China too. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Oana Lungescu, RUSI Distinguished Fellow and the longest serving NATO Spokesperson (2010–23), and the first woman and first journalist to hold the post, as well as Ed Arnold, RUSI Senior Research Fellow. They discuss the main agenda items and decisions that will have to be made by the Alliance at Washington, as well as how NATO aims to set its future trajectory.…

Global Security Briefing

1
A New Security Environment in the South Atlantic and Antarctica? 47:34

1 year ago47:34

47:34

The South Atlantic and the Antarctic have drawn considerable attention from big powers, who are racing to strengthen their regional footprints and presence as the region opens up for navigation and other potential uses. Despite very low tensions, the South Atlantic is a recurrent area of discussion in the UK given the territorial claim over the Falkland archipelago by Argentina. The UK’s commitment to defend its overseas territories, blending both soft and hard power, has larger strategic implications given the increasingly contested geopolitics of the South Atlantic. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Juan Pablo Toro of AthenaLab in Chile and Dr Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, to discuss the prospects of the South Atlantic and Antarctica becoming zones where geo-economic competition and militarisation risk destabilising the status quo.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Taiwan’s New Government Takes Office 47:54

1 year ago47:54

47:54

In the face of growing security challenges, this episode discusses what is on the agenda for Taiwan’s new leadership. Taiwan is not merely a democracy; it is an outstanding example of a democracy. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2023 Democracy Index ranked Taiwan top in Asia and 10th globally (ahead of the UK and US) among the 167 countries and territories it surveys. Like all democratic countries, Taiwan’s electoral preoccupations are a mix of domestic and foreign. But the inauguration of the incoming administration has been transformed into a global security event, because Taiwan is at the centre of a looming confrontation between the US and the People’s Republic of China. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Winnie King, Senior Lecturer at the University of Bristol, and Thomas des Garets Geddes, RUSI Associate Fellow, to discuss how the inauguration of a new government in Taiwan will affect cross-strait relations, and how might this play into the larger story of the Sino-US confrontation. What can we expect next?…

Global Security Briefing

1
An Examination of AUKUS 51:42

1 year ago51:42

51:42

An in-depth exploration of the Australia–UK–US defence capability agreement (AUKUS) and what it means for the UK’s foreign and security policy in the Indo-Pacific. Launched in September 2021, AUKUS is well into its third year. The unique trilateral partnership has the potential to bring about massive changes in the Indo-Pacific security landscape. But what exactly is it? Should we see it as a new type of alliance, or simply another arms deal? Is it just a trilateral procurement framework, or something far more original in the realm of multilateralism? In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Charles Edel, Senior Adviser and the Inaugural Australia Chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow, Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to answer these very questions and to delve into what AUKUS means for the future of UK foreign policy. This episode is brought to you as part of a programme supported by the Embassy of Japan.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Russia’s Changing Position in the South Caucasus 55:12

1 year ago55:12

55:12

How is Russia reorienting its relationship with Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan? Since the collapse of the USSR, Russia has sought to strengthen its security position in the South Caucasus, notably around the region’s protracted conflicts and using its strategic relationship with Armenia. Vladimir Putin’s decision in March 2022 to invade Ukraine has, however, raised questions about Russia’s ability to maintain its regional leverage. At the same time, Azerbaijan’s series of military actions in the Karabakh conflict have further undercut Moscow’s position. Increasingly, Russia appears no longer to be the dominant actor in the region. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Natia Seskuria, Founder and Executive Director of the Regional Institute for Security Studies (RISS), and Richard Giragosian, Director of the Regional Studies Centre, to examine Russia’s engagement in the South Caucasus. What are Moscow’s strategic goals in the region, and to what extent is Russia looking to establish a new status quo in the South Caucasus?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Is the Middle East Facing a Regional War? 52:43

1 year ago52:43

52:43

Following Iran’s attack on Israel, we consider the future of conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of an all-out regional war. The recent strike on Israel by Iran and its allies has reignited fears of a wider regional war and speculation over what form it could take. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr H A Hellyer, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow, and Dr Louise Kettle, RUSI Associate Fellow and Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, to explore how – and to what extent – the Middle East is undergoing a political and security transformation that is being accelerated by the current round of regional violence and confrontation. What sort of regional power balance is likely to emerge from the current crisis? And what are the realistic prospects for a full-blown regional war?…

Global Security Briefing

1
The Rising Influence of Counter-West Associations 44:53

1 year ago44:53

44:53

This episode discusses the emergence of ‘counter-West’ groupings and how they fit within – and are seeking to shape – the wider global order. In 2023 we ran a series of episodes focusing on the Russia–China relationship, the growing linkages to Iran and Venezuela and to North Korea's emergence as an international actor, as well as efforts to forge the BRICS association into a larger non-Western organisation. While Western countries continue to stand behind the idea of a comprehensive, rules-based order built upon common norms, laws and institutions, these concepts are being contested by academics, politicians and public figures and are no longer accepted as automatically valid in large parts of the world. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Simon Rynn, Research Fellow for African Security at RUSI, and Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow for Indo-Pacific Security at RUSI, to discuss what can be learnt from ongoing or latent conflicts that appear to pit Western actors and norms against challengers.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Putin Forever? Analysing the Russian Elections 48:11

1 year ago48:11

48:11

With Vladimir Putin claiming yet another victory in Russia’s recent national elections, we examine his tenure and what the future has in store. While Putin’s election victory was always a certainty, such political exercises involving mass engagement efforts are complex and potentially risky operations for authoritarian leaders. At the age of 71, and with a hold on power now lasting until at least 2030, how is Putin trying to justify his continued leadership? And how can a successor emerge in this stifling political environment? In this episode, host Neil Melvin asks Professor David Lewis from the University of Exeter to answer these questions.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Transatlantic Cooperation on Policy Towards China and the Indo-Pacific 53:32

1 year ago53:32

53:32

With the rise of China and the centrality of the Indo-Pacific to economic and geopolitical affairs, we look at the challenges faced by governments in Europe and North America. A history of solidarity and common approaches to dealing with threats affecting allies across the Atlantic might lead to the assumption that a transatlantic strategy and its supporting institutions would naturally emerge with regards to China. Shared commitments to universal human rights and adherence to a rules-based global order should also drive a convergence of policies. However, a variety of national political and trade considerations drive Europeans and North Americans in somewhat different directions when dealing with China. On this episode of GSB, host Neil Melvin is joined by Philip Shetler-Jones, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, and Andrew Cainey, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Founding Director of the UK National Committee on China, to discuss their latest research paper which tackles important questions such as: how much transatlantic cooperation on policy towards China is happening; why has it been difficult for allies on both sides of the Atlantic to agree on working together; and what do the differences between the Trump and Biden administrations’ approaches tell us about prospects for the future? This episode is brought to you as part of a RUSI project supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Russia’s Long War Against Ukraine 1:02:35

1 year ago1:02:35

1:02:35

As we mark the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we consider the implications of what has turned into a protracted conflict. Russia has seized back the initiative in the war, due at least partly to ampler supplies of ammunition and drones. While Ukraine continues to achieve important tactical victories against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the land and air campaign is increasingly characterised by Russian pressure and territorial gains. There are also growing doubts about the ability of the Euro-Atlantic community to adequately resource the war, with acute concern about the deadlocked debate in the US Congress over military support for Ukraine. As we enter the third year of the war, it is likely the fighting will stretch well into the future. Host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Hanna Shelest, Security Studies Programme Director at the think tank Ukrainian Prism, and Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Chairman of the Ukrainian think tank the Centre for Defence Strategies and a former defence minister of Ukraine. Where is the war heading? And can Western unity on Ukraine hold?…

Global Security Briefing

1
The Middle East Crisis: Approaching the Endgame? 52:59

1 year ago52:59

52:59

The Global Security Briefing takes a forward look at how this conflict is shaping the region. Before the 7th of October, when Hamas’ unprecedented attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza, the Middle East appeared to have largely fallen off the list of priorities for Western policymakers. After decades of intense – and often unsuccessful and politically unpopular – involvement in the Middle East, Western governments were glad to pay less attention to the region.But the Middle East is now back to the top of the agenda for governments in London, Washington and other European capitals. There are long-term strategic challenges to think about: finding a way forward in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; dealing with Iran’s nuclear programme; Iran’s proliferation of missiles and drones across the region; as well as cultivation of proxy forces. And as always, the critical task is the development of a more sustainable and stable regional order. In this edition of the Global Security Briefing, Neil is joined by Dr Tobias Borck from RUSI and Dr Julie Norman from University College London to look at how Israel’s war in Gaza is evolving and where the risks of wider regional escalation stand now.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Security Cooperation in the Americas 46:45

2 years ago46:45

46:45

As the US electoral cycle ramps up, we consider how they may shape the security landscape of the Americas in years to come. Despite Washington’s historical engagement in security cooperation with countries like Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and Chile, US-Latin American relations are not trouble-free.. Positive views of the US have declined, partly due to the emergence of new localplayers who seek alliances with Russia, China and Iran. Could President Biden revitalize relations with its southern neighbours if re-elected this year? And how might the return of Donald Trump influence Washington’s policies towards Latin America? In this episode of GSB, host Neil Melvin is joined by Brian Fonseca, Director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University and Carlos Solar, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security at RUSI, to explore the dynamics of US-Latin American relations.What drives the US and other countries such as the UK to invest in security and diplomacy efforts in the Americas? And how is Washington currently dealing with China policy in the Americas, and its economic, scientific, and security prospects in the region?…

Global Security Briefing

1
2023 Security Review: New Year Special Part 2 47:42

2 years ago47:42

47:42

As we welcome the new year, the International Security team at RUSI reviews the biggest geo-political events of the past 12 months and discusses what we can expect from 2024 in this two-part holiday special. What was foreseen, and what came unexpectedly in global security developments during the past year? And how have security events altered the trajectory of various regions? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Carlos Solar, Simon Rynn, and Philip Shetler-Jones to discuss how the past 12 months have shaped Latin America, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific, and what we can expect during the coming year.…

Global Security Briefing

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2023 Security Review: GSB Holiday Special Part 1 48:30

2 years ago48:30

48:30

As the year draws to a close, the International Security team at RUSI reviews the biggest geo-political events of the year in this two-part holiday special. From the ongoing war in Ukraine to the crisis in Gaza, 2023 has seen some major global events. But how did 2023 pan out when compared to what was expected at the beginning of the year? What was foreseen and what has been unexpected? And, more importantly, how have security events altered the trajectory of the affected regions? Host Neil Melvin is joined by Emily Ferris, Ed Arnold and Tobias Borck to discuss how this year has shaped Russia, Northern Europe and the Middle East, and what we can expect from 2024.…

Global Security Briefing

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Where is the War in Ukraine Heading in 2024? 51:34

2 years ago51:34

51:34

As the war enters its second winter and third year, are we now facing the prospect of battles lasting until at least 2025? The prospect of an immediate decisive military breakthrough for Ukraine has disappeared. Kyiv’s offensive – launched in the summer – has largely subsided, with Ukraine’s troops exhausted from over six months of intense fighting. At the same time, Ukraine’s key international support pillars are under pressure. Depleted Western armouries will have far less to provide to Ukraine in the year ahead. Western political unity is being questioned, with struggles in the US Congress to ensure that Kyiv receives the critical military and economic assistance that it will need in 2024. And the EU is facing questions about whether there will be the unanimity to agree a €50-billion aid package and to open membership negotiations. Within Ukraine there are growing signs of concern about the current direction of the war. With the military campaign appearing to face a period of prolonged stalemate, in this episode of Global Security Briefing we are joined by Mark Galeotti, RUSI Senior Associate Fellow and Principal Director, Mayak Intelligence.…

Global Security Briefing

1
India as an Indo-Pacific Power and Strategic Partner 49:29

2 years ago49:29

49:29

As India is quickly developing as a major power, Global Security Briefing considers its prospects as a partner for the UK in the context of the Indo-Pacific ‘Tilt’ The world has many emerging powers, but India is probably the one with the greatest potential to shift the balance in the Indo-Pacific and, perhaps, the world over coming generations. Following independence, India forged a ‘non-aligned’ path through the Cold War. For most of its history, its main security threat came from neighbouring Pakistan, with which it has fought a series of wars, and competed successfully in a race to acquire nuclear weapons. Today, it is the prospect that India might take a side in the great power competition between the USA and China that is drawing the attention of the world. India’s gigantic population and skills base also makes it an attractive market and technology partner, not least for Britain, as the UK seeks to develop new economic relations after leaving the EU. The UK government’s ‘Integrated Review’ of March 2021 described India as “an international actor of growing importance” and states the ambition to transform the UK’s cooperation with India “across the full range of our shared interests”. UK-India relations are framed by a mutually agreed roadmap to deepen bilateral ties by 2030 with the aim of developing a comprehensive strategic partnership. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by Dr Walter Ladwig III of King’s College London. Beyond what it offers the UK ‘tilt’, the trajectory of India’s rise appears certain to influence the outcome of military strategic rivalry, the evolution of global governance and the competition of different civilisational values. The question is ‘how?’.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Achieving a More Dynamic and Effective UK–China Strategy 44:31

2 years ago44:31

44:31

With David Cameron's return to government, this episode of the Global Security Briefing analyses the UK's approach to China over the past decade. The UK’s 2023 Integrated Review Refresh declares China a ‘an epoch-defining systemic challenge’. This is a far cry from the tone of the earlier UK policy from 2015, when the then-Cameron government referred to the bilateral relationship with Beijing as entering a ‘golden era’. This apparent discrepancy has prompted calls for greater coherence in policy execution, public debate and scrutiny. In this episode, we are joined by RUSI's Senior Associate Fellow and Founding Director of the UK National Committee on China, Andrew Cainey, to ask: what is the UK's current China policy, and is a strategy document the best way to achieve desired results?…

Global Security Briefing

1
Could the Israel–Hamas Conflict Spark a Regional War? 56:33

2 years ago56:33

56:33

Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October has opened a new chapter in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. We examine how the war is set to reshape the Middle East for years to come. In a highly complex attack that included a missile barrage and an invasion of southern Israel, Hamas killed 1,400 people and took over 200 people hostage – mostly Israelis, but also a significant number of foreign nationals. Israel has responded with overwhelming military force in the Gaza Strip, vowing to destroy Hamas once and for all. Thus far, Israel’s extensive air campaign and artillery bombardment has killed thousands of Palestinians. There are fears that the conflict could escalate further. For the UK and the rest of Europe, the war also represents a difficult challenge. Most European governments have declared strong support for Israel, but there are also growing calls for a ceasefire. In this episode, host Neil Melvin is joined by RUSI Senior Research Fellow Tobias Borck and Dr Louise Kettle, Assistant Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, to discuss how the war between Israel and Hamas is evolving.…

Global Security Briefing

1
Where do the UK’s Interests in European Security Now Lie? 44:32

2 years ago44:32