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#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)
Manage episode 428054402 series 3418237
Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't?
Check out Rich's website, his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World, and his podcast.
We discuss
- The pros of the rationality and EA communities
- Whether Bayesian epistemology contributes to open-mindedness
- The fact that evidence doesn't speak for itself
- The fact that the world doesn't come bundled as discrete chunks of evidence
- Whether Bayesian epistemology would be "optimal" for Laplace's demon
- The difference between truth and certainty
- Vaden's tone issues and why he gets animated about this subject.
References
- Scott's original piece: In continued defense of non-frequentist probabilities
- Scott Alexander's post about rootclaim
- Our previous episode on Scott's piece: #69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability
- Rootclaim
- Ben's blogpost You need a theory for that theory
- Cox's theorem
- Aumann's agreement theorem
- Vaden's blogposts mentioned in the episode:
Socials
- Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
- Follow Rich at @MeadowsRichard
- Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
- Help us calibrate our credences and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
- Click dem like buttons on youtube
What's your favorite theory that is neither true nor useful? Tell us over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.
Special Guest: Richard Meadows.
89 episodes
Manage episode 428054402 series 3418237
Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't?
Check out Rich's website, his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World, and his podcast.
We discuss
- The pros of the rationality and EA communities
- Whether Bayesian epistemology contributes to open-mindedness
- The fact that evidence doesn't speak for itself
- The fact that the world doesn't come bundled as discrete chunks of evidence
- Whether Bayesian epistemology would be "optimal" for Laplace's demon
- The difference between truth and certainty
- Vaden's tone issues and why he gets animated about this subject.
References
- Scott's original piece: In continued defense of non-frequentist probabilities
- Scott Alexander's post about rootclaim
- Our previous episode on Scott's piece: #69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability
- Rootclaim
- Ben's blogpost You need a theory for that theory
- Cox's theorem
- Aumann's agreement theorem
- Vaden's blogposts mentioned in the episode:
Socials
- Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
- Follow Rich at @MeadowsRichard
- Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
- Help us calibrate our credences and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
- Click dem like buttons on youtube
What's your favorite theory that is neither true nor useful? Tell us over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.
Special Guest: Richard Meadows.
89 episodes
All episodes
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1 #86 (Reaction) - On Confidence and Evidence: Reacting to Brett Hall and Peter Boghossian (Part 2) 1:20:07

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1 #84 - A Primer on Not Born Yesterday by Hugo Mercier 1:09:39

1 #83 - The Anxious Generation Round II: Alternative Explanations 1:21:20

1 #82 - Are Screens Really That Bad? Critiquing Jon Haidt's "The Anxious Generation" 1:52:49

1 #81 - What Does Critical Rationalism Get Wrong? (w/ Kasra) 1:39:05

1 #80 (C&R Series, Chap. 7) - Dare to Know: Immanuel Kant and the Enlightenment 1:06:47

1 #78 - What could Karl Popper have learned from Vladimir Nabokov? (w/ Brian Boyd) 1:00:39

1 #77 (Bonus) - AI Doom Debate (w/ Liron Shapira) 2:21:22

1 #76 (Bonus) - Is P(doom) meaningful? Debating epistemology (w/ Liron Shapira) 2:50:58

1 #75 - The Problem of Induction, Relitigated (w/ Tamler Sommers) 1:41:13

1 #74 - Disagreeing about Belief, Probability, and Truth (w/ David Deutsch) 1:32:02

1 #58 - Ask Us Anything V: How to Read and What to Read 1:40:32

1 #57 (Bonus) - A calm and soothing discussion of The Patriarchy 1:01:29

1 #56 - Ask Us Anything IV: Certainty, Emergence, and Popperian Imperatives 1:21:32


1 #54 - Ask Us Anything III: Emotional Epistemology 1:18:26

1 #53 - Ask Us Anything II: Disagreements and Decisions 1:34:10

1 #52 - Ask Us Anything I: Computation and Creativity 1:13:29

1 #51 - Truth, Moose, and Refrigerated Eggplant: Critiquing Chapman's Meta-Rationality 1:12:05

1 #50 - On the Evolutionary Origins of Storytelling, Art, and Science 2:00:53

1 #49 - AGI: Could The End Be Nigh? (With Rosie Campbell) 1:24:53

1 #48 (C&R Chap. 18) - Utopia and Violence 1:00:41

1 #47 (Bonus) - Dualism, Reductionism, and Explanation Pancakes 1:32:30

1 #46 (Bonus) - Arguing about probability (with Nick Anyos) 1:59:16

1 #45 - Four Central Fallacies of AI Research (with Melanie Mitchell) 53:29

1 #44 - Longtermism Revisited: What We Owe the Future 1:02:04

1 #73 - The Unfairness of Proportional Representation 1:25:12

1 #72 (C&R, Chap. 19: Part II) - On the (alleged) Right of a Nation to Self-Determination 51:18

1 #71 (C&R, Chap 19: Part I) - The History of Our Time: An Optimist's View 1:12:50

1 #70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows) 1:30:34

1 #69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability 1:45:09

1 #68 - Libertarianism IV: Political Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson) 1:50:16

1 #67 - Libertarianism III: Social Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson) 1:45:32

1 #66 - Sex Research, Addiction, and Financial Domination (w/ Aella) 1:06:36

1 #65 - Libertarianism II: Economic Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson) 1:33:02

1 #64 - Libertarianism I: Intro and Moral Issues (w/ Bruce Nielson) 1:52:38


1 #62 (Bonus) - The Principle of Optimism (Vaden on the Theory of Anything Podcast) 2:45:37

1 #61 - Debating Free Will: Frankenstein's Monster and a Filmstrip of the Universe (with Lucas Smalldon) 1:42:49

1 #60 - Creativity and Computational Universality (with Bruce Nielson) 1:58:42

1 #59 (C&R, Chap 8) - On the Status of Science and Metaphysics (Plus reflections on the Brett Hall blog exchange) 1:26:24
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