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What are the drivers of the current Liberal advantage?

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Manage episode 474764348 series 2903067
Content provided by David Coletto. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by David Coletto or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, I dig into why the Liberals—now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney—are currently the favourites in this federal election campaign. Using advanced analysis from a binary logistic regression model, I break down what’s really driving support for the Liberal Party.

We explore how voters’ priorities—like concern about Donald Trump versus anxiety over the cost of living—shape the likelihood of supporting the Liberals, and why impressions of Carney and Poilievre matter so much. I also unpack a few hypothetical voter profiles to illustrate how issue salience and leader perceptions work together to move votes.

Whether you’re on the campaign trail, in the war room, or just trying to make sense of the latest polls, this data-driven episode offers insights into how the ballot question is being shaped—and what that means for each party’s path to victory.

  continue reading

25 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 474764348 series 2903067
Content provided by David Coletto. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by David Coletto or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

In this episode of InFocus with David Coletto, I dig into why the Liberals—now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney—are currently the favourites in this federal election campaign. Using advanced analysis from a binary logistic regression model, I break down what’s really driving support for the Liberal Party.

We explore how voters’ priorities—like concern about Donald Trump versus anxiety over the cost of living—shape the likelihood of supporting the Liberals, and why impressions of Carney and Poilievre matter so much. I also unpack a few hypothetical voter profiles to illustrate how issue salience and leader perceptions work together to move votes.

Whether you’re on the campaign trail, in the war room, or just trying to make sense of the latest polls, this data-driven episode offers insights into how the ballot question is being shaped—and what that means for each party’s path to victory.

  continue reading

25 episodes

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