The Day After Nasrallah: Succession and Strategic Opportunities

Insider: Short of War

by Alexandra Veyne, the Chief Human Resources Officer of the Irregular Warfare Initiative.

In this analysis of Hezbollah's leadership crisis, Alexandra Veyne examines the strategic implications of Hassan Nasrallah's elimination and his successor Naim Qassem's appointment. She argues that Qassem's lack of charisma and weaker leadership profile could prove more devastating to Hezbollah than continued tactical strikes. Drawing on Shi'i political dynamics and organizational theory, Veyne suggests that Israel's strategic interests might be better served by allowing an ineffective leader to remain in power while supporting Lebanese opposition forces, rather than pursuing another high-profile assassination.

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official position of the Irregular Warfare Initiative, Princeton University’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, the Modern War Institute at West Point, or the United States Government.

The essay can be found on the Irregular Warfare Initiative's website.

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