Cracks in the System

Insight Myanmar

Episode #325: “It's going to take days, if not weeks, to really get a full picture on how devastating this initial earthquake was, let alone these aftershocks that were expected.”

A powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake, followed by a major aftershock, struck central Myanmar, leaving behind widespread devastation. Entire regions, particularly along the Yangon-Mandalay corridor, were heavily damaged.

Michael Martin, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explains how Myanmar’s political fragmentation severely complicates aid delivery. The country is divided between the military junta (SAC), ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), making coordinated relief efforts nearly impossible. Civil society organizations are trying to respond but face communication barriers and limited support from international actors.

Martin critiques the role of the SAC, which has historically weaponized aid, prioritizing its own interests and obstructing relief to opposition areas. EAOs have demonstrated more effective local distribution through long-standing networks, but international agencies are often reluctant to work outside official channels. The National Unity Government (NUG) lacks the capacity and recognition to serve as a central coordinator.

Martin warns that despite early pledges from regional powers, international interest may wane. He stresses the urgent need for recovery-focused aid before monsoon season worsens conditions. Ultimately, he expresses cautious hope in the resilience of the Burmese people, who have long endured hardship with determination and strength.

“Now you're seeing people all over the country, not only taking up arms to get rid of the military, but also gathering and saying, ‘Okay, now that we got them out of here, how do we want to be governed in our town, in our township, in our ethnic state, in our region, however It may be.’ I suspect that if the international community doesn't fully pull the weight that it probably should, that the people in the country will find a way of getting by, because that's what they've done for decades. They get by in their terrible circumstances.”

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