Can Europe withstand the ripple effect of the MAGA political wave?

International report

Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations tells RFI that Donald Trump’s administration is treating Europe less as a partner and more as a rival. In backing nationalist movements and undermining multilateral institutions, it is exporting a political mode of operation that risks fracturing European unity.

The impact of Donald Trump's second term in the White House is being felt far beyond US borders. Observers say this ripple effect can be seen across Europe, not just in policy but in the continent's political culture itself.

For Dr Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the stakes are nothing less than the future of European liberal democracy.

In her latest ECFR report, MAGA Goes Global: Trump’s Plan for Europe, Belin warns that what might appear to be chaotic decisions from the Oval Office are, in fact, part of an ideological project.

“There’s actually a strong direction, a clear destination,” Belin told RFI. “Trump, surrounded by loyalists and MAGA Republicans, is ready to implement his plan – to push back on liberal democracy, and to push back on Europe."

According to her, he sees Europe as “an extension of his political enemies – liberals and progressives” and views its institutions as bureaucratic hurdles rather than allies in global leadership.

Culture wars without borders

Trump’s administration – bolstered by figures including Vice President JD Vance and media mogul Elon Musk – has also made overtures to Europe’s far right.

They have voiced support for Germany’s far-right AfD party and France's Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, including on Musk's social media platform X (formerly Twitter) – helping to disseminate nationalist and populist rhetoric across the continent.

“We’re seeing a systematic attack on the liberal model that Europe represents,” said Belin. “This ‘Trumpian wave’ has fired up nationalist opposition in Europe, even if it hasn’t created a united front."

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Non merci to MAGA

However, some of the European political parties that share Trump’s scepticism of liberal institutions are treading carefully when it comes to embracing his brand of politics.

While leaders such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary openly welcome MAGA-style backing, others see it as a double-edged sword.

Following her recent legal conviction, Le Pen received support from MAGA-aligned figures. But her party responded with conspicuous silence.

“They don’t want or need this Trumpian support,” Belin noted. “Their political strategy is not about aligning with MAGA America – it’s more French, more sovereignist."

Embracing Trump too openly could risk undermining years of effort to mainstream the National Rally’s image. “Nationalists are realising that now – it brings fuel to the fire, yes, but it also complicates their own domestic positioning," said Belin.

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Europe responds

French President Emmanuel Macron was among the first European leaders to sound the alarm on the changing nature of the US-European alliance.

"I want to believe that the United States will stay by our side but we have to be prepared for that not to be the case," he said in a televised address to the nation in March.

I January, in a speech to French ambassadors, he said: "Ten years ago, who could have imagined it if we had been told that the owner of one of the largest social networks in the world would support a new international reactionary movement and intervene directly in elections, including in Germany."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz followed suit, criticising Musk’s decision to give the AfD a platform just weeks before Germany's federal elections.

However, Belin points out that the European response is still taking shape. “It’s brand new as a phenomenon,” she said. “Europeans were prepared to be challenged on trade, on security – even on Ukraine. But this cultural challenge is unprecedented.”

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Still, as Belin notes, Trumpism is not a winning formula everywhere. “Turning fully Trumpist would derail Marine Le Pen’s strategy. It’s not a winning strategy in France,” she said. “But in more insurgent political systems, it might be."

And there is concern too that Trumpism could outlive Trump himself.

“There’s been a transformation in the perception of America’s global role,” Belin said. “And that will stick around. It will be pushed by some of the nationalist parties in our countries. That is the Trumpist legacy”.