Turkey steps up military action against Kurds in Syria as power shifts

International report

Turkish-backed forces have launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime.

The Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish air power, is pushing against the US-supported People's Defense Units (YPG), which Ankara claims is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades.

The YPG controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey, which Ankara says poses a security threat.

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan says Turkey is determined to prevent the YPG and its affiliate the PKK from exploiting a power vacuum following the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

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"We are in communication with the groups to make sure that terrorist organisations, especially Daesh [Islamic State] and the PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation," he said. "Turkey is committed to continuing the fight against terrorism. All minorities – non-Muslims, Christians, non-Arabs, Kurds – should be treated equally."

Opportunity for Ankara

Ever since the YPG took over control of the Syrian territory at the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Ankara has been seeking to remove it.

With the ousting of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of its Iranian and Russian backers, which had in the past blocked Turkish military interventions, analysts say Ankara now sees an opportunity to finally remove the YPG threat.

"The current situation creates an opportunity for its [Turkey's] fight against PKK and YPG because there is now no Russia, there is no Iran," explains Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University.

"Turkey was facing the Russian forces, the Iranian forces, and Assad's regime forces while it was combatting the PKK and YPG," she added. "We can name it as an opportunity for its fight against PKK and YPG."

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However, the YPG is still being supported by a small US military force, as part of the war against the Islamic State (IS). The YPG is also detaining thousands of IS militants.

'The Euphrates is a line'

With the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army now approaching the Euphrates River, analysts say further eastward advances could put Ankara on a collision course with both Washington, and Syria's new rulers – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS.

"The Euphrates now is like a line perhaps for the US military," explains Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet.

"If that [military advance] goes on as such, it could bring Turkey indirectly head to head with the US, with even perhaps HTS, and it could put Ankara in a delicate diplomatic position again," warned Selcen.

Tensions with Israel

The Israeli military's advance into Syria is adding to Ankara's concerns over the threat posed by the PYG and its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar last month described the Kurds as a "natural ally" of Israel, a comment that came amid growing Israeli-Turkish tensions.

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"Israel is now carving out a corridor [in Syria] between the PKK/PYD-controlled territories, and its own territories," explained Hasan Unal, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University.

"That suggests that this is what they [Israel] are trying to do – [to create] a Kurdish puppet state east of the Euphrates. And this is something that is likely to create lots of problems with Turkey," he added.

With Israel's presence in Syria, Ankara is likely to step up pressure on the YPG, and on the incoming Trump administration to end US military presence in Syria.