NOW Ep103: Tensions, tariffs and the fragile global economy

Investec Focus Radio SA

At the midpoint of 2025, the global economy stands at a precarious intersection of cooling inflation on one side, rising geopolitical tensions on the other. In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks with Investec Chief Economists Annabel Bishop (South Africa) and Phil Shaw (UK) about the shocks and signals shaping markets from the Strait of Hormuz and the US tariff clock to South Africa’s subdued growth and greylisting outlook.
Podcast key moments:
00:00 – Introduction
01:20 - How are markets reacting to Middle East risk premium?
02:37 - How significant is the risk that supply disruptions there could derail the fragile global recovery?
04:00 - What's South Africa’s inflationary forecast and will prices rise at the pump?
05:58 - Can the South African Reserve Bank afford to be hawkish?
08:02 – Do major central banks have room to cut interest rates?
09:58 - How exposed is South Africa's sovereign risk profile to another bout of foreign investor retreat?
13:18 - How has the global economy reacted to the tariff threat?
15:05 - South Africa also bracing itself for what's next on the tariff front
17:16 – Dollar outlook
18:23 - What impact will the dollar weakness have on emerging markets?
20:17 – Will Europe’s growth strengthen in coming months?
21:38 – South Africa’s growth outlook
24:16 – Should South Africa get off the grey list, how would rating agencies react?
26:35 - Critical risks and opportunities in the global economy in the next six months
Read more on www.investec.com/now
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what's moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business. Investec Focus Radio SA

Chapters

1. Introduction (00:00:00)

2. How are markets reacting to Middle East risk premium? (00:01:20)

3. How significant is the risk that supply disruptions there could derail the fragile global recovery? (00:02:37)

4. What's South Africa’s inflationary forecast and will prices rise at the pump? (00:04:00)

5. Can the South African Reserve Bank afford to be hawkish? (00:05:58)

6. Do major central banks have room to cut interest rates? (00:08:02)

7. How exposed is South Africa's sovereign risk profile to another bout of foreign investor retreat? (00:09:58)

8. How has the global economy reacted to the tariff threat? (00:13:18)

9. South Africa also bracing itself for what's next on the tariff front (00:15:05)

10. Dollar outlook (00:17:16)

11. What impact will the dollar weakness have on emerging markets? (00:18:23)

12. Will Europe’s growth strengthen in coming months? (00:20:17)

13. South Africa’s growth outlook (00:21:38)

14. Should South Africa get off the grey list, how would rating agencies react? (00:24:16)

15. Critical risks and opportunities in the global economy in the next six months (00:26:35)