Breaking the 60/40 Myth with Philip Toews

Lead-Lag Live

Phillip Toews, founder of Toews Asset Management, delivers a master class in portfolio construction that challenges everything you thought you knew about investing. Drawing from historical market catastrophes often ignored by conventional wisdom, Toews reveals how a traditional 60/40 portfolio would have been devastated during the Great Depression – losing up to 72% of its value and remaining down over 60% after thirteen years.
This eye-opening conversation explores the concept of "adaptive fixed income" as Toews walks us through the little-discussed bond bear market from 1945 to 1981 that eroded investor wealth by 21% in real terms. With high sovereign debt levels globally and unprecedented monetary policy responses, Toews suggests we may be vulnerable to currency debasement rather than traditional market dynamics.
The heart of Toews' philosophy lies in his revolutionary approach to behavioral finance. Rather than starting with conventional portfolios and coaching investors through volatility, he advocates designing "all-weather" portfolios from the ground up that address both economic and psychological needs. His hedged equity approach aims to capture most market upside while dramatically limiting participation in downturns, potentially allowing investors to maintain positions during crashes and capitalize on eventual recoveries.
Toews introduces the concept of "corona bias" – just as society was unprepared for a pandemic despite historical precedent, investors ignore financial catastrophes outside their professional lifetimes. This collective amnesia leaves portfolios vulnerable to recurrences of historical calamities.
Whether you're an investment professional seeking to differentiate your practice or an individual investor concerned about today's complex market environment, this conversation provides a roadmap for building portfolios designed to withstand various economic scenarios while managing the crucial behavioral aspects of investing. Discover why Toews' recently published book "The Behavioral Portfolio" is changing how advisors approach client relationships and portfolio construction.

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Chapters

1. Rethinking Traditional Portfolios (00:00:00)

2. Adaptive Fixed Income Strategies (00:10:03)

3. Hedged Equity Explained (00:18:02)

4. Behavioral Finance and Portfolio Design (00:26:12)

5. The All-Weather Portfolio Approach (00:31:29)

6. Modern Challenges in Investment Advisory (00:40:19)