Four Headings And No Numerals: Narrative Based Climate Scenarios

Let Me Sum Up

This satisfyingly hourlong episode (you’re welcome) starts with a discussion of the United Kingdom’s recent reset of climate policies, which PM Rishi Sunak casts as a “more pragmatic, proportionate and realistic approach” to Net Zero, and others decry as a mix of backsliding on things that matter and cancellation of things that weren’t even proposed.* Is this a sign of things to come?

Maybe, say the (prescient? Or simply well-hedged?) authors of…

Our main paper

… “No Time To Lose: New Scenario Narratives for Action on Climate Change” by Mark Cliffe and teams from the University of Exeter and the Universities Superannuation Scheme. This takes the shortcomings of Integrated Assessment Models familiar from previous episodes such as Episode 6 (“An orange, a picture of an apple and a mandarine shaped eraser: Critiquing Integrated Assessment Models”), notes that IAMs remain fundamental to well-intentioned efforts to understand the future such as the Network for Greening the Financial System, and sets out the beginnings of a different approach.

New scenarios, focussed not on climate change to 2050 but on extreme weather and the politics and economics of climate and energy to 2030, aim to provide a greater spread of relevant possibilities and provide decision-relevant information. But do they succeed? Opinions differ!

Three cited examples of differing paradigms for prognostication are:

• The Rupert Way et al simple abstract world energy system model included in The Oxford Learning Rates Paper we keep banging on about (originally in Episode 11)
• Absurdly complex and bug-riddled simulationism like wonderful nerdy videogame Dwarf Fortress
• The ultimate prediction science of Psychohistory in Isaac Asimov’s Foundation novels

One more things

Alison’s One More Thing is the National Electricity Law, which has recently been amended to include an emissions reduction objective at s7(c) of the Schedule. Now to flesh out how that will be reflected in decisionmaking…

Tennant’s One More Thing is the Victorian Renewable Gas Consultation Paper, open for submissions til 6 October.

Luke’s One More Thing is a video game called Umurangi Generation, in which cyberpunk and anime aesthetics collide with a landscape shaped by climate disaster. Available on Steam, and discussed in another podcast!

What could possibly top all that, perspicacious Summerupperers? Find out next time - or tell us yourself via [email protected] or @LukeMenzel, @TennantReed, @alison_reeve and @FrankieMuskovic.

*PS: we realised after recording that Alison referred to ULEV (ultra-low emission vehicle) instead of ULEZ (ultra-low emissions zone) in our opening segment on the Great British Back Off. ULEZ is correct. It’s hard enough to keep the Australian acronyms straight some days, let alone the British ones.