Is November a Bullish Month for the S&P 500 During Election Cycles?

Market Dive

🎙 Welcome to Market Dive, your weekly deep dive into the world of finance and investing!

Nika and Kian will discuss how the S&P 500 performs specifically in November during U.S. presidential election years, drawing on trends across eight election cycles from 1992 to 2020. This episode dives into how political outcomes and economic contexts shape market behavior during these unique periods, giving investors insight into what to expect as the 2024 election approaches.

In this episode, Nika and Kian will explore:

1. How do different election outcomes impact November returns for the S&P 500?
2. Why did the market soar in 2020 but decline sharply in 2008 and 2000?
3. Which sectors consistently benefit from election outcomes, and why?
4. Is there an average November return we can rely on during election years?
5. How do broader Q4 trends, like tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing, affect the S&P 500 in election Novembers?

In election years, November is a pivotal month for the S&P 500, driven by political outcomes and year-end financial strategies. Since 1992, November has averaged a 1.84% return in election years, with positive returns 75% of the time. For example, the market surged 10.75% in November 2020 on vaccine optimism, while it dropped -4.28% in 2008 due to the financial crisis. Sectors like Financials and Consumer Discretionary often thrive in election Novembers—Financials gained 5.3% in 2020 and 4.7% in 2016, buoyed by regulatory hopes—while sectors like Technology and Consumer Staples show mixed results. Join Nika and Kian as they explore these trends and what they might mean for the 2024 election cycle!

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