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Trump Tariff Outcomes: Is the “Less-Worse” Case a Best-Case Scenario?

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Manage episode 488404178 series 3352072
Content provided by Hoover Institution. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Hoover Institution or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

What’s the most likely outcome for President Trump’s tariff strategy – trading partners capitulating, America’s economy and exceptionalism crumbling, or something in the middle?

Hoover fellows and economists Michael Bordo and Mickey Levy discuss a recent paper they’ve published on the history of tariff impositions and four possible outcomes (none of them are good). Their conclusion: the odds favor a “less-worse” case of 12%-14% tariffs and deals with Canada and Mexico, with a “small but cumulative impact” on longer-run potential growth (maybe a mild recession) while the U.S. retains its global dominant status.

Recorded on June 6, 2025

  continue reading

106 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 488404178 series 3352072
Content provided by Hoover Institution. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Hoover Institution or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://ppacc.player.fm/legal.

What’s the most likely outcome for President Trump’s tariff strategy – trading partners capitulating, America’s economy and exceptionalism crumbling, or something in the middle?

Hoover fellows and economists Michael Bordo and Mickey Levy discuss a recent paper they’ve published on the history of tariff impositions and four possible outcomes (none of them are good). Their conclusion: the odds favor a “less-worse” case of 12%-14% tariffs and deals with Canada and Mexico, with a “small but cumulative impact” on longer-run potential growth (maybe a mild recession) while the U.S. retains its global dominant status.

Recorded on June 6, 2025

  continue reading

106 episodes

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