Soaring US Debt Burden & The Global Market Reset | Gerard Minack

Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Gerard Minack of Minack Advisors joins Monetary Matters to discuss why even though other developed nations like Japan may have higher debt to GDP ratios, factors like net debt, monetized debt, and the overall size of US debt make this comparison flawed. He argues these factors make the current trajectory of US debt levels completely unsustainable and that the bond vigilantes will step in long before even more extreme levels are reached. He also discussed the extreme valuation gap for US assets compared to the rest of the world, why he thinks that gap will narrow, Mag 7 dominance and AI, and why he thinks Japan, not China, is the large Asian market set to outperform.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:24 Van Eck OUNZ

01:00 Interest Rate & Bond Market Views

09:13 Comparing US Debt Levels to Japan

12:21 Comparing Soft & Hard Data

16:19 Two Growth Scenarios Affecting Rates This Year

23:30 Van Eck OUNZ

24:05 The New World of Higher Rates

33:12 How Higher Rates Impact Stocks

43:01 The AI Trade and US Valuations

49:23 The US Valuation Gap vs The Rest of the World

53:12 Mag 7 Dominance

01:03:15 Bearish on Chinese Stocks and Bullish on Japan

01:09:23 Japan's Macro Backdrop

01:16:19 The Neutral Rate & Demographics

01:21:22 No Recessions in Australia

01:26:16 Australian Outlook