Episode 4: Reinventing Muni Bond Pricing with Spline CEO Matt Smith, the Thomas Bayes of Fixed Income

OpenYield Markets Podcast

In this episode of OpenYield Markets Podcast, host Mark Hebert sits down with Matt Smith, founder and CEO of Spline, to explore how machine learning, real-time data, and modern infrastructure are transforming the municipal bond market.

Founded in 2022, Spline is a fintech company redefining fixed income analytics with a focus on municipal bonds. The firm delivers high-frequency secondary market pricing, live yield curves, and predictive analytics for new issue pricing — all updated every five minutes, even across the odd-lot space. Matt shares how his experience at Headlands Tech Global Markets led him to identify gaps in the Muni ecosystem and build a platform engineered to solve them.

Topics covered in this episode include:

• Why Muni yield curves are harder to model than treasuries — and how Spline tackles the challenge
• The role of odd-lot data in identifying market tone and liquidity stress
• How Spline’s real-time curves compare to traditional sources like MMD
• The importance of inference and forward-looking data in predictive analytics
• Why customer success — not just raw data — is key to Spline’s nearly zero churn rate
• Reflections on market volatility, from COVID to recent rate moves, and how Spline models held up
• The future of electronification in Munis and the limits of automation in a market with no shorting and minimal hedging
• Why the MCDX index failed — and what it says about liquidity, structure, and trade interest in municipal credit

Matt also discusses the meaning behind the name “Spline,” how customer education is central to their product strategy, and why illiquid assets may be the next frontier beyond Munis.

If you're a trader, portfolio manager, fintech builder, or market enthusiast looking to understand where municipal finance is headed and how data science is shaping its future - this episode is essential listening.