Ep 73 - Geopolitical Risk: Thailand Tensions, Sanctions & Smart Compliance in a Shifting Asia

Regulatory Ramblings

Episode #73 with Christopher Cottrell, Richard Butler and Haider Mannan 🎧

This episode of Regulatory Ramblings explores how shifting geopolitics is reshaping regulation, investment, and compliance across Asia.

In the first segment, veteran Indo-Pacific journalist Christopher Cottrell joins us from Thailand to discuss rising political tensions following the July 1 suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Cottrell reflects on the country’s fragile democratic institutions, the stalled gaming bill, and the implications of border instability with Cambodia. Despite risks, Thailand continues to attract investors, with Cottrell noting that local legal knowledge remains essential to navigating uncertainty.

In the second half, Richard Butler (Dow Jones) and Haider Mannan (BigTXN) join to discuss compliance and enforcement risks in the current geopolitical climate. Topics include:

• Investment screening in high-risk jurisdictions
• The return of “firm but fair” FCPA enforcement under the Trump administration
• The challenge of selective enforcement and its implications for Asia
• A recent case involving U.S. sanctions on Hong Kong and Chinese firms transferring Iranian oil
• Evolving technologies in vessel tracking and trade surveillance
• The growing role of data science in sanctions compliance and risk detection

Butler and Mannan offer practical insights into how financial institutions are managing these risks. Mannan emphasizes that compliance failures often stem from process gaps, not policy flaws — and argues for continuous, data-driven controls. Butler adds that banks and corporates across Asia are increasingly investing in technology to ensure compliance amid volatility.

The episode closes on a note of cautious optimism. While global enforcement trends and geopolitical tensions present new challenges, they also create opportunities for innovation in compliance strategy.

Guests
– Christopher Cottrell, Journalist and Analyst, Indo-Pacific
– Richard Butler, Vice President & APAC Head of Risk & Research, Dow Jones
– Haider Mannan, CEO & Founder, BigTXN

The Regulatory Ramblings podcast is brought to you by The University of Hong Kong's Reg/Tech Lab (Building Better Financial Systems), HKU-SCF FinTech Academy, Asia Global Institute, and HKU-edX Professional Certificate in FinTech, with support from HKU Law. The program is led by Douglas Arner and hosted by Ajay Shamdasani.

For more details about the authors and links, please visit: hkufintech.com/rr

HKU FinTech is the leading fintech research and education in Asia. Learn more at www.hkufintech.com.

Chapters

1. Ep 73 - Geopolitical Risk: Thailand Tensions, Sanctions & Smart Compliance in a Shifting Asia (00:00:00)

2. Christopher Cottrell: Border Flashpoints, Political Storms, Gambling Battles, and Thailand’s Coup Risk (00:03:18)

3. Balancing Risk and Reward - Why Thailand Still Attracts Investors Despite Political Whiplash (00:07:31)

4. Crosscurrents of Influence - How Chinese Heritage Shapes Thailand’s Regional Positioning (00:13:19)

5. Thailand’s Border Voices - Resilience, Youth, and Hopes for a Rising Southeast Asia (00:17:06)

6. Richard Butler & Haider Mannan: Sanctions, Screening, and the Second Trump Effect (00:20:07)

7. From One-Off Checks to Full-Chain Insight, The New Reality of Investment Screening (00:22:38)

8. Sanctions and Strategy - From Iran-Israel Tensions to Asia’s Exposure Under Trump 2.0 (00:25:22)

9. No Place to Hide - AI Surveillance, Iranian Oil Transfers, and the New Face of Sanctions Enforcement (00:34:31)

10. Who's Really in Charge? When Data Scientists Meet Compliance Veterans (00:39:39)

11. FCPA and Tariff Shocks - What’s Old, What’s Next for Compliance in Asia Under Trump (00:48:43)

12. Staying Ahead, Staying Open - Asia’s Next Chapter in Risk and Compliance (00:55:13)