Navigating a down market in retirement

Retirement Answers Today

In this episode, we delve into the intricacies of market volatility, particularly how it impacts retirees and those nearing retirement. We discuss why market downturns, while unsettling, are normal and temporary. Key points include understanding the sequence of risk, the importance of having a solid retirement plan, and actionable steps to stay calm and make informed decisions during market corrections. Additionally, we emphasize the significance of maintaining appropriate asset allocation, consulting with advisors, and avoiding knee-jerk reactions based on media sensationalism. The episode aims to equip listeners with the knowledge to navigate financial turbulence and secure a prosperous retirement.

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00:00 Understanding Market Volatility for Retirees 01:14 The Emotional Impact of Market Drops 02:01 Historical Market Corrections and Recessions 03:13 Handling Market Corrections: Strategies and Insights 03:51 The Importance of Context and Media Influence 07:47 Practical Steps During Market Downturns 09:08 Revisiting Retirement Income Strategy 09:47 Reviewing Asset Allocation and Advisor Consultation 11:53 Focus on What You Can Control 12:40 The Importance of Sticking to the Process 12:50 Understanding Market Volatility 13:09 What Not to Do During Market Volatility 14:15 The Value of Patience in Investing 14:47 Avoiding Emotional Decisions 16:12 The Role of a Solid Plan 17:58 Staying Calm and Patient 19:49 Final Thoughts and Recommendations 21:36 Podcast Conclusion and Disclaimers

Point 1: Market Corrections are Normal and Frequent

• Average Frequency and Duration of Corrections:

  • Source: Fidelity Investments, “U.S. stock market corrections: A historical perspective,” February 2023.

  • Link: Fidelity Viewpoints

Point 2: Bear Markets Always End with a Recovery

• Historical Bear Market Data (duration, depth, frequency):

  • Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research, "Bear Markets in Historical Perspective," November 2022.

  • Link: Schwab Insights

• 2008 Financial Crisis Recovery Example:

  • Source: CNBC Markets Report, "The stock market’s historic 11-year bull run came to an end—here’s how it compared," March 2020.

  • Link: CNBC

Point 3: Emotional Decisions Cost Investors

• JPMorgan Asset Management Study (Impact of Missing the Best Days):

  • Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, “Guide to Retirement,” 2023 Edition.

  • Link: JPMorgan Guide to Retirement (slide 41)

• COVID-19 Crash Example:

  • Source: Vanguard Insights, "How America invests 2022," June 2022.

  • Link: Vanguard

Point 4: Diversification and a Balanced Portfolio Reduce Volatility

• Balanced Portfolio (60/40) Performance and Volatility Comparison:

  • Source: Vanguard, "The case for a balanced portfolio," April 2023.

  • Link: Vanguard Investor Insights

• 2022 Diversification Example:

  • Source: Morningstar Research, "How a Diversified Portfolio Helped Investors Survive 2022’s Bear Market," January 2023.

  • Link: Morningstar

Point 5: Time in the Market Beats Timing the Market

• Dalbar Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB):

  • Source: Dalbar’s "Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) Report," 2023 Edition.

  • Link: Dalbar QAIB Report

• Historical Comparison (Dot-Com, 2008 Financial Crisis, COVID):

  • Source: Fidelity Investments, "Market timing can cost investors big," February 2023.

  • Link: Fidelity Viewpoints

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