The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers: Ep 13

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Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg talk about the latest news around Major League Baseball and take a look at the market for the Most Wins in July.

The Inside Pitch w/ Josh Towers Ep. 13, recorded June 30, features Scott Seidenberg and former MLB pitcher Josh Towers discussing trends across Major League Baseball as July approaches. The episode begins with a startling stat: 61 games have been decided by 10 or more runs before July, the most since 2004. These blowouts impact betting lines through recency bias, but the hosts argue savvy bettors can exploit this. For example, after the Cubs’ 12–3 win over Houston, the line moved in favor of the Astros, who bounced back the next day with a 3–0 win behind Framber Valdez. Towers emphasized players mentally reset after blowouts and that those games often preserve top relievers for the next matchup, giving smart teams like Houston an edge.

The Mets were highlighted as a struggling team despite early-season promise. They were swept in Pittsburgh and outscored 30–4. A recent players-only meeting didn’t help, and June stats reveal deep issues: a 109 WRC+ (9th best) but a 4.80 ERA (5th worst). Pete Alonso dropped from the .360s to .291, and the lineup outside him is below .260. Senga’s injury was flagged as a possible turning point. Towers also pointed out that pitchers like Blackburn and Montas returned from injury without sufficient rehab buildup. Montas had six rehab starts totaling just 18 innings and struggled in his second MLB outing. This points to systemic issues with pitcher preparation.

The conversation shifted to elite pitching. Tarik Skubal leads MLB with a 9.86 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 1.98 FIP, making him the AL Cy Young favorite at -190. Garrett Crochet is a close second (+380), with similar innings, strikeouts, and a 2.54 FIP. Josh praised Skubal’s ability to pitch downhill and manipulate the strike zone, describing it as a “blueprint” for pitching. He argued that current trends emphasizing vertical pitching miss these fundamentals. Ranger Suarez of the Phillies also drew attention with a 1.19 ERA over his last 10 starts, the best 10-game stretch since Cliff Lee. Phillies had the second-best ERA in June, supporting their rise despite Bryce Harper’s injury. Josh stressed the value of quality starts—six innings, three or fewer earned—as essential to team success and underappreciated in today's stat-obsessed game.

They examined home ballpark impacts, particularly Globe Life Park in Texas, now MLB’s lowest scoring venue. Rangers are 30–12 to the under at home, yet Towers insists this is due to poor offense, not the ballpark. No player has more than nine homers, and he criticized swing mechanics and development. He also highlighted how teams like the Dodgers and Tigers, both 53–32, find success through depth, discipline, and pitching, while teams like the Mets lack cohesion.

With July beginning, the hosts reviewed betting odds for most wins. Astros are the favorite at +450, but their schedule includes Colorado, Dodgers, and Cleveland, leading both analysts to question the pick. The Dodgers (+500) and Tigers (+750) are favored due to consistent performance and better matchups. The Cubs dropped from 20:1 to 9:1 after a large bet, but neither host found value there. Phillies and Rays have potential, though travel-heavy schedules are a concern. Lastly, they emphasized evaluating teams based on matchups rather than records alone, citing San Diego’s poor performance against winning teams (15–28). The episode ends with a preview of their upcoming midseason awards show and a pregame.com promo code (BAT15) for $15 off.

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