The Wire - June 17, 2025

S2 Underground

//The Wire//2300Z June 17, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: STRATEGIC BUILDUP CONTINUES AS USA CONTINUES PLANS FOR WAR WITH IRAN.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: The previously observed strategic buildup of tanker aircraft continues, as over a dozen KC-135's moved from Europe to the Middle East overnight. Most of these tankers were flying under the "GOLD" callsign, indicating that they were flying in formation with fighter aircraft in tow. This morning, satellite imagery confirmed that almost every US Navy warship stationed in Bahrain has departed port, to include one Littoral Combat Ship, a few minesweepers, and over a dozen support vessels.
This morning President Trump stated that the United States has achieved aerial superiority in the skies over Iran. President Trump also has taken to social media to demand the "unconditional surrender" of Iran, and has threatened to assassinate the Ayatollah if demands are not met.
Strait of Hormuz: Overnight, two ships collided in the Gulf of Oman. The M/T FRONT EAGLE collided with the M/T ADALYNN, causing a large fire. Rescue operations are ongoing.
AC: Despite early reports, this incident is not the result of combat action. It is not clear why, however the FRONT EAGLE executed a turn hard to starboard, which resulted in her collision with the ADALYNN.
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Analyst Comments: At this point, it is challenging to interpret the recent statements by the White House in any other manner than that a formal declaration of war with Iran is merely a formality. The decision to go to war may have already been signed and sealed as theorized months ago, or the die might not have been cast just yet. Either way, there's absolutely nothing that the American people can do about it at this point, other than improve personal readiness as best one can. Though tensions are palpably high right now, the real challenges will come many months after the US enters into a war with Iran, should that be the chosen course of action.
More tactically, the threats to the average citizen living in the American homeland remain, though with debatable levels of severity due to the sheer uncertainty of what the threat really is. Anytime the United States targets anything in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf-style attacks here in the homeland increases. At the moment, however, the risks of a false-flag incident occurring to drag the United States into a war is also very high. Protests with varying levels of severity continue more or less persistently in many major US cities, which will present risks regardless of what's happening in the international space.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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