Fraud at polls: can journalists and statisticians check? The Mozambican experience

Spring 2016 | Public lectures and events | Audio and pdf

Contributor(s): Johan Ahlback, Dr Joseph Hanlon, Dr Jouni Kuha | In every Mozambican election, the ruling party (Frelimo) won, and the opposition cried fraud. Can we tell who really won? Teams of up to 150 journalists, organized by Joe Hanlon, covered the elections across the country and reported that fraud and misconduct did occur. But did it change the outcome? Mozambique reports results from each polling station (each with fewer than 1000 voters) which allows statistical analysis for ballot box stuffing, invalidating opposition votes, and other misconduct. This is a first report on a unique project to put the journalists and statisticians together - and test the official outcome of five presidential elections. Johan Ahlback is a PhD student in the Department of Government at LSE. Joseph Hanlon is a Visiting Fellow in International Development at LSE. Jouni Kuha is an Associate Professor of Statistics and Research Methodology in the Department of Statistics at LSE. Wendy Willems is an Associate Professor in the Media & Communications Department at LSE. A blog post entitled Mozambique returns to war, as opposition claims electoral ‘fraud’ by Johan Ahlback and Dr Joseph Hanlon is available to read at the LSE Department of International Development Blog. The Department of International Development (@LSE_ID) promotes interdisciplinary post-graduate teaching and research on processes of social, political and economic development and change. The Department of Statistics (@StatsDeptLSE) enjoys a vibrant research environment and offers a comprehensive programme of undergraduate and postgraduate degrees in Statistics.