Crypto Markets Efficient?

Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom reluctantly return to the topic of Bitcoin, using its recent price spike to explore deeper questions about market efficiency, irrational investor behavior, and the legitimacy of crypto as an investment. With nods to Eugene Fama, Cliff Asness, and some well-aimed skepticism, the duo debates whether price reflects value or just hype. Alongside listener calls from California, Canada, and North Carolina, they address portfolio allocation, pension rollover strategies, and even debunk gold’s glitter as a bond replacement—punctuated by a truly explosive segment on “FartCoin.” Yes, really.

0:56 Tom and Don reluctantly dive into Bitcoin and crypto’s price spike

1:37 Are crypto markets truly efficient? Academia vs. reality

2:44 Price goes up because price went up? Questioning efficient market theory

4:17 Cliff Asness on how social media distorts collective investment judgment

6:23 Don restates the three ways to make money: work, luck, dishonesty

6:50 Harvard-style debate: Can markets be truly efficient?

8:24 Rational ignorance and emotional investing behavior

9:36 Fama says Bitcoin will go to zero within a decade

10:30 Dogecoin and meme coins: speculative absurdity vs. real purpose

12:06 Investment principles: Diversify, plan, ignore hype

13:51 Tom and Don are ‘contrary indicators’—Bitcoin jokes ensue

14:14 Call: Clinton in CA asks where to put pension payments he doesn’t need yet

16:13 Investment advice for 5-year+ horizon: high yield/cash/bond/stock mix

17:48 Tom’s wife builds a wheelbarrow, financial education “nonprofit” mailer

19:11 Crypto joke segment: FartCoin rises to $3.50… and the bad puns begin

22:02 Call: Jeff from Canada on gold returns vs. bond stability

24:24 Should gold be part of a diversified portfolio? Historical returns debunked

28:39 Gold bar nostalgia vs. investment logic

29:58 TRM T-shirt giveaway and gold vs. bonds as ‘cool’ vs. smart

31:30 Call: Zach in NC—Should he roll old 401(k) into state pension plan?

33:10 Breakdown of NC pension plan fund options and a 90/10 allocation strategy

36:03 Don signs up for a “non-sales” financial education class by an unlicensed guy

37:50 Red flags: financial advisor not registered anywhere, mystery deepens

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