The Trump Bear Trap | May Round Up

The Alpha Architect Round Up

The Trump Bear Trap: Volatility, Tariffs, and Factor Frustration Markets whipsawed through April, with sudden drawdowns, massive rebounds, and political catalysts fueling confusion. In this episode of the Alpha Architect Roundup, we break down whether this is a true bear trap—or just the cost of being a long-term, evidence-based investor. Key Topics Covered: •Is this a bear trap or just market noise? •The impact of Trump’s tariff threats and 90-day delays •Why GDP shrank—and whether it means recession •Crisis alpha and trend following: when should it work? •Small-cap drawdowns and doubts about the size premium •Do value and momentum still deserve investor trust? •What it takes to stick with factor investing through pain Timestamps: 00:00 –Intro/ Factor investing should be hard 01:27 – April volatility: bear trap or bull trap? 06:39 – "Kicking the can down the road" 12:29 – GDP contraction: signal or noise? 15:31 – Crisis alpha and trend disappointment 19:49 – Is the size premium dead? 21:40 – Factors and the problem of timing 27:04 – Are factors dead? 36:49 – Is technical analysis for n00bs? 40:12 – Final thoughts Subscribe for more insights on diversification, market trends, and smart investing strategies! Website & Disclosures For more educational resources, visit our website: https://www.alphaarchitect.com Disclosures: https://www.alphaarchitect.com/disclosures